If You Had Bought FedEx (NYSE:FDX) Shares A Year Ago You'd Have Earned 141% Returns

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 29, 2021
NYSE:FDX

Unfortunately, investing is risky - companies can and do go bankrupt. But if you pick the right business to buy shares in, you can make more than you can lose. For example, the FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) share price had more than doubled in just one year - up 141%. It's also good to see the share price up 24% over the last quarter. However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 24% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for FedEx

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

FedEx went from making a loss to reporting a profit, in the last year.

When a company has just transitioned to profitability, earnings per share growth is not always the best way to look at the share price action.

We doubt the modest 0.8% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. However the year on year revenue growth of 13% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:FDX Earnings and Revenue Growth May 30th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of FedEx, it has a TSR of 144% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that FedEx has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 144% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 15% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for FedEx that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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