Does Expeditors Still Offer Value After Its Strong 2025 Share Price Rally?

• Wondering if Expeditors International of Washington is still a smart buy after its strong run, or if the stock is already priced for perfection? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current tag makes sense.
• The share price has climbed to around $150.50, logging gains of 2.1% over the last week, 10.9% over the past month, and an impressive 36.8% year to date, with multi year returns still firmly positive.
• Behind those moves, investors have been watching global freight demand stabilize and trade lane bottlenecks ease. This tends to support volume and pricing for asset light logistics players like Expeditors. At the same time, ongoing discussions around reshoring, supply chain resilience, and shifting trade flows have kept high quality logistics operators in focus as potential long term winners.
• Despite this momentum, Expeditors only scores 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. We will therefore dig into what different valuation methods are actually saying and wrap up with a more intuitive way to think about value that goes beyond the usual ratios.

Expeditors International of Washington scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects the cash Expeditors International of Washington is expected to generate in the future and then discounts those cash flows back to today to estimate what the business should be worth now.

Starting with last twelve month free cash flow of about $924 Million, analysts and model assumptions project that free cash flow could rise to roughly $1.50 Billion by 2035. In the near term, one analyst estimate points to about $1.08 Billion of free cash flow in 2027, with later years extrapolated by Simply Wall St using gradually moderating growth rates. These projected cash flows, all in $, are then discounted using a required rate of return in a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework.

On this basis, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $187.29 per share versus the recent share price near $150.50, implying the stock is trading at roughly a 19.6% discount.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued by 19.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expeditors International of Washington.

Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings

For a consistently profitable business like Expeditors International of Washington, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growth, cyclicality, or elevated risk usually warrant a lower, more conservative multiple.

Expeditors currently trades at about 23.86x earnings, a clear premium to both the Logistics industry average of roughly 15.95x and a peer group average around 18.68x. At first glance, that makes the stock look expensive. However, Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of about 13.89x, which reflects what a reasonable PE might be after adjusting for the company’s earnings growth profile, profitability, risk factors, industry dynamics, and market capitalization.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than simple peer or industry comparisons because it explicitly incorporates fundamentals rather than just relative pricing. Comparing the current multiple of 23.86x to the Fair Ratio of 13.89x suggests the market is paying a substantial premium to what those fundamentals support.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company’s story with the numbers behind its future. A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own storyline for Expeditors International of Washington, where you spell out how you think revenue, earnings, and margins will develop, which then flows into a financial forecast and ultimately a fair value estimate. Narratives live inside the Community page on Simply Wall St, making them easy to create, compare, and refine alongside millions of other investors. Once you have a Narrative, you can quickly see whether your fair value sits above or below the current share price. This can help you decide whether Expeditors looks like a buy, hold, or sell for your own approach. Narratives are also dynamic, automatically updating as new information such as earnings reports or major news is incorporated into the underlying data. For example, one investor’s Narrative might see Expeditors fairly valued at a much higher price than another’s more cautious Narrative, reflecting different expectations for long term trade growth and profitability.

Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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