USA Truck (NasdaqGS:USAK) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of USAK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

USAK ($31.22) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($43.21)

USAK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

USAK Stock Overview

USA Truck, Inc. operates as a truckload carrier in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Rewards

Trading at 27.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 214.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

USA Truck Competitors

Covenant Logistics Group

NasdaqGS:CVLG

US$473.2m

Daseke

NasdaqCM:DSKE

US$456.6m

P.A.M. Transportation Services

NasdaqGM:PTSI

US$801.9m

Universal Logistics Holdings

NasdaqGS:ULH

US$919.7m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for USA Truck
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$31.22
52 Week High	US$31.67
52 Week Low	US$13.01
Beta	1.08
1 Month Change	0.42%
3 Month Change	83.97%
1 Year Change	126.89%
3 Year Change	262.18%
5 Year Change	290.25%
Change since IPO	338.17%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 26

USA Truck's Buyout: A Little Light

USA Truck just announced that it had agreed to be acquired by a private business for a substantial premium. The end result is a nice payday for investors, and the deal is being done at terms that are reasonable compared to similar firms. But on the whole, the firm likely had additional upside potential that investors are going to miss out on. A small opportunity for additional returns still exists that investors should consider during these turbulent times.

Shareholder Returns

	USAK	US Transportation	US Market
7D	0.1%	5.1%	1.0%
1Y	126.9%	-16.2%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: USAK exceeded the US Transportation industry which returned -16.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: USAK exceeded the US Market which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is USAK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
USAK volatility
USAK Average Weekly Movement	32.9%
Transportation Industry Average Movement	8.6%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: USAK is more volatile than 90% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 33% a week.

Volatility Over Time: USAK's weekly volatility has increased from 18% to 33% over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1983	2,100	James Reed	https://www.usa-truck.com

USA Truck, Inc. operates as a truckload carrier in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Trucking and USAT Logistics. The Trucking segment offers motor carrier services as a medium-haul common and contract carrier; and freight services.

USA Truck Fundamentals Summary

How do USA Truck's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
USAK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$265.52m
Earnings (TTM)	US$34.28m
Revenue (TTM)	US$752.95m

7.7x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is USAK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
USAK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$752.95m
Cost of Revenue	US$630.63m
Gross Profit	US$122.32m
Other Expenses	US$88.04m
Earnings	US$34.28m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.03
Gross Margin	16.25%
Net Profit Margin	4.55%
Debt/Equity Ratio	34.8%

How did USAK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is USAK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for USAK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for USAK. This is calculated by dividing USAK's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is USAK's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$265.52m

USAK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does USAK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

USAK PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for USAK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.7x
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group	5.9x	-29.4%	US$473.2m
DSKE Daseke	8.6x	30.9%	US$456.6m
PTSI P.A.M. Transportation Services	8.2x	n/a	US$801.9m
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings	8.1x	0.3%	US$919.7m
USAK USA Truck	7.7x	n/a	US$265.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: USAK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does USAK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: USAK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (9.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is USAK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

USAK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate USAK's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of USAK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: USAK ($31.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($43.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: USAK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is USA Truck forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

3.4%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: USAK's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: USAK's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has USA Truck performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

30.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: USAK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: USAK's current net profit margins (4.6%) are higher than last year (1.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: USAK has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 30.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: USAK's earnings growth over the past year (214.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (30.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: USAK earnings growth over the past year (214.7%) exceeded the Transportation industry 59.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: USAK's Return on Equity (27.6%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is USA Truck's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: USAK's short term assets ($141.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($105.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: USAK's short term assets ($141.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($171.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: USAK's net debt to equity ratio (25.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: USAK's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 154.2% to 34.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: USAK's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (90.5%).

Interest Coverage: USAK's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is USA Truck current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate USAK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate USAK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if USAK's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as USAK has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

James Reed (49 yo)

5.58yrs

Tenure

US$1,868,737

Compensation

Mr. James D. Reed has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at USA Truck Inc. since January 30, 2017 and its Director since January 2017. Mr. Reed served as Chief Financial Officer of USA Truck In...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: James's total compensation ($USD1.87M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.67M).

Compensation vs Earnings: James's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: USAK's management team is considered experienced (2.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: USAK's board of directors are considered experienced (6.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31