Mesa Air Group (NasdaqGS:MESA) - Share price, News & Analysis

MESA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	0/6

MESA Stock Overview

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 98.71% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Mesa Air Group Competitors

Harbor Diversified

OTCPK:HRBR

US$100.8m

Wheels Up Experience

NYSE:UP

US$687.0m

Hawaiian Holdings

NasdaqGS:HA

US$867.9m

SkyWest

NasdaqGS:SKYW

US$1.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Mesa Air Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$3.03
52 Week High	US$9.18
52 Week Low	US$2.00
Beta	2.64
1 Month Change	49.26%
3 Month Change	11.81%
1 Year Change	-62.31%
3 Year Change	-50.65%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-74.21%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 24

Is Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MESA) Worth US$2.4 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Does the June share price for Mesa Air Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MESA ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...

Jun 23

Mesa Air Group: Not A Regional Airlines Gem

Mesa Air Group is experiencing the bitter reality of being a regional airline. Airline has 200 pilots in training, but between each pilot leaving and coming in there is a 74-day gap. Absent of pilot shortages, regional airlines with fuel cost pass through would provide superior investment opportunities.

Shareholder Returns

	MESA	US Airlines	US Market
7D	20.2%	2.7%	3.2%
1Y	-62.3%	-20.6%	-10.2%

Return vs Industry: MESA underperformed the US Airlines industry which returned -20.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MESA underperformed the US Market which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MESA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MESA volatility
MESA Average Weekly Movement	10.6%
Airlines Industry Average Movement	8.0%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: MESA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MESA's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1982	2,600	Jonathan Ornstein	https://www.mesa-air.com

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico.

Mesa Air Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Mesa Air Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MESA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$109.97m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$74.54m
Revenue (TTM)	US$536.15m

0.2x

P/S Ratio

-1.5x

P/E Ratio

Is MESA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MESA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$536.15m
Cost of Revenue	US$439.39m
Gross Profit	US$96.77m
Other Expenses	US$171.30m
Earnings	-US$74.54m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-2.05
Gross Margin	18.05%
Net Profit Margin	-13.90%
Debt/Equity Ratio	146.0%

How did MESA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MESA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MESA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MESA. This is calculated by dividing MESA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MESA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$109.97m

MESA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MESA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

MESA PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for MESA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.2x
HRBR Harbor Diversified	0.3x	n/a	US$100.8m
UP Wheels Up Experience	0.5x	11.4%	US$687.0m
HA Hawaiian Holdings	0.4x	15.5%	US$867.9m
SKYW SkyWest	0.4x	8.1%	US$1.2b
MESA Mesa Air Group	0.2x	8.4%	US$110.0m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MESA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (1.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MESA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Airlines Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MESA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the US Airlines industry average (0.6x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MESA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MESA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MESA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MESA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MESA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MESA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Mesa Air Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

98.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MESA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MESA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MESA is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MESA's revenue (8.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MESA's revenue (8.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MESA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Mesa Air Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-40.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MESA is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: MESA is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MESA is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 40.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MESA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: MESA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Airlines industry (0.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MESA has a negative Return on Equity (-17.62%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Mesa Air Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MESA's short term assets ($95.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($240.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: MESA's short term assets ($95.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($656.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MESA's net debt to equity ratio (133.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: MESA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 437.7% to 146% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MESA's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (2.5%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if MESA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Mesa Air Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate MESA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate MESA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MESA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MESA's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as MESA has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jonathan Ornstein (64 yo)

24.25yrs

Tenure

US$1,861,055

Compensation

Mr. Jonathan G. Ornstein serves as Chief Executive Officer of go! airlines. Mr. Ornstein has been Chief Executive Officer at Mesa Air Group, Inc. and Mesa Airlines Inc. since May 1, 1998.Mr. Ornstein serv...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jonathan's total compensation ($USD1.86M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD760.00K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jonathan's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MESA's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MESA's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/13 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30