| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
HUBG Stock Overview
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America.
Hub Group Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$80.68 |
| 52 Week High | US$87.21 |
| 52 Week Low | US$60.81 |
| Beta | 0.91 |
| 1 Month Change | 13.70% |
| 3 Month Change | 6.09% |
| 1 Year Change | 26.06% |
| 3 Year Change | 94.36% |
| 5 Year Change | 127.59% |
| Change since IPO | 1,949.02% |
Recent News & Updates
Is There Now An Opportunity In Hub Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG)?
Hub Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:HUBG ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens...
Hub Group: Innovative Business Model, But Not Cheap Enough Yet
Hub Group, Inc. is a supply chain solutions provider offering transportation and logistics management services. Under my worst-case scenario, I think that labor shortages, slowdowns, or stoppages may be likely. Among the recent innovations, in my view, new robotic process automation and artificial intelligence will likely improve efficiency and free cash flow generation. Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) is launching many initiatives to become more efficient and more innovative. I also noted profit improvement initiatives, which will likely lead to revenue generation. With all that being said, I believe that the upside potential in the stock price is not sufficient to justify a position in the stock. There are many risks, which may push the stock price down. I may try to grab shares, but not at the current stock price. Keep in mind that I do like Hub Group, but I dislike its stock price. The Hub Group Mission Hub Group, Inc is a supply chain solutions provider offering transportation and logistics management services. The company provides services such as truckload, temperature-controlled, dedicated and regional trucking. Most clients come from the consumer products industry as well as the retail and ecommerce sector. Hence, a decline in any of these activities may lead to a decline in the company’s revenue. Investor Presentation I decided to research Hub Group once I noticed several profit improvement initiatives announced in a recent quarterly report. In my view, the most relevant are the efficiencies coming from sharing of equipment and drivers as well as the delivery of revenue under a new business line called Intermodal and Transportation Solutions: As part of our profit improvement initiatives we have focused on realizing efficiencies between our dedicated and drayage trucking operations, including through the sharing of equipment and drivers, and by leveraging a combined driver support services function. Our dedicated and drayage teams now operate as one combined organization. As a result, beginning in first quarter 2022 we now report revenue for these operations under the “Intermodal and Transportation Solutions” line of business. Source: Hub Group, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2022 Results Besides, management announced new investments in equipment and technology, which will likely enhance revenue generation from 2022. Among the new equipment, management expects to add more intermodal containers, GPS, driver tablets, and new software applications. Investor Presentation Investor Presentation Analysts Are Expecting Sales Growth, Positive Net Income, And Growing Free Cash Flow In my view, investment analysts are relatively optimistic about HUBG. They expect a decline in sales growth in 2023, but sales growth in 2022 is expected to be close to 27%. The EBITDA margin may be close to double digit, and operating margin may reach 8% to 6% from 2022 to 2024. Marketscreener.com With that about the income statement, the cash flow statement gets even more interesting. Estimates about HUBG include FCF/Sales between 4.3% and 3.25%. The capex/sales ratio is also expected to stand at around 3.6%. Have a look at the figures of analysts because I based some of my models on the estimates given by other financial analysts. marketscreener.com Management is also optimistic about the year 2022. In a recent presentation, HUBG delivered 2022 sales guidance of $5.3-$5.5 billion and capital expenditures close to $240-$265 million. I used some of these figures in my base case scenario: We expect that our 2022 diluted earnings per share will range from $9.00 to $10.00. We estimate revenue will range from $5.3 to $5.5 billion, and that gross margin as a percentage of revenue will range from 15.6% to 16.0%. We estimate our costs and expenses will range from $420 to $440 million for the year. We project our effective tax rate for the year will be 24-25%. We expect capital expenditures for 2022 to range from $240 to $265 million. Source: Hub Group, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2022 Results Base Case Scenario: Investments In Technology Could Lead To A Share Price Of $94 Under my base case scenario, I assumed that investments in technology will successfully enhance the company’s relationships with clients, drivers, and vendors. Among the recent innovations, in my view, new robotic process automation and artificial intelligence will likely improve efficiency and free cash flow generation: In 2021, we also delivered solutions using computer visioning, robotic process automation and artificial intelligence to create increased efficiency in our operations and back office functions. This included the automation of manual processes, using human augmentation solutions to allow our experienced supply chain professionals to make critical decisions while allowing a robot to complete the repeatable tasks, and developing learning-based robots to drive better decision support to the hands of operating teams. Source: 10-k Besides, I think that a lot of technological innovation will come from acquisitions of innovative competitors. Management has already reported meaningful acquisition of Choptank Transport, LLC and NonstopDelivery, LLC: On October 19, 2021, we acquired 100% of the equity interests of Choptank Transport, LLC. The acquisition added scale to our truck brokerage operation, enhanced our refrigerated trucking transportation services offering and complemented our growing fleet of refrigerated intermodal containers. On December 9, 2020, we acquired NonstopDelivery, LLC. NSD provides residential final mile delivery services throughout the United States. The financial results of NSD, since the date of acquisition, are included in our logistics line of business. Source: 10-k
Shareholder Returns
| HUBG | US Logistics | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 5.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 1Y | 26.1% | -3.1% | -12.9% |
Return vs Industry: HUBG exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned -3.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HUBG exceeded the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| HUBG volatility | |
|---|---|
| HUBG Average Weekly Movement | 5.1% |
| Logistics Industry Average Movement | 6.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 17.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: HUBG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.
Volatility Over Time: HUBG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1971 | 4,700 | David Yeager | https://www.hubgroup.com |
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The company’s transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking, as well as final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transportation. Its logistics services comprise full outsource logistics solution, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, and parcel and international services.
Hub Group Fundamentals Summary
| HUBG fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$2.80b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$318.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$5.03b |
8.8x
P/E Ratio0.6x
P/S RatioIs HUBG overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| HUBG income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$5.03b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$4.20b |
| Gross Profit | US$832.19m |
| Other Expenses | US$514.19m |
| Earnings | US$318.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 9.18 |
| Gross Margin | 16.54% |
| Net Profit Margin | 6.32% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 18.7% |
How did HUBG perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is HUBG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HUBG?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is HUBG's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$2.80b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 5x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.7x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does HUBG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| HUBG PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 15.1x | ||
FWRD Forward Air | 17.1x | 3.6% | US$2.8b |
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings | 6.1x | -13.3% | US$2.8b |
ATSG Air Transport Services Group | 11x | 4.9% | US$2.3b |
GXO GXO Logistics | 26.4x | 22.6% | US$5.7b |
HUBG Hub Group | 8.8x | -12.6% | US$2.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HUBG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the peer average (15.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does HUBG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HUBG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (11x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is HUBG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 8.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HUBG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of HUBG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: HUBG ($80.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($101.37)
Significantly Below Fair Value: HUBG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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Future Growth
How is Hub Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?
Future Growth Score
0/6Future Growth Score 0/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
-12.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: HUBG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.6% per year).
Earnings vs Market: HUBG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: HUBG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: HUBG's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: HUBG's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: HUBG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.8%).
Discover growth companies
Past Performance
How has Hub Group performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
6/6Past Performance Score 6/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
17.6%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: HUBG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: HUBG's current net profit margins (6.3%) are higher than last year (2.4%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: HUBG's earnings have grown by 17.6% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: HUBG's earnings growth over the past year (249.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (17.6% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: HUBG earnings growth over the past year (249.5%) exceeded the Logistics industry 77.7%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: HUBG's Return on Equity (20.7%) is considered high.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is Hub Group's financial position?
Financial Health Score
6/6Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: HUBG's short term assets ($1.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($718.6M).
Long Term Liabilities: HUBG's short term assets ($1.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($425.4M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: HUBG has more cash than its total debt.
Reducing Debt: HUBG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 23.9% to 18.7% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: HUBG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (97.5%).
Interest Coverage: HUBG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (65x coverage).
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Hub Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate HUBG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate HUBG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HUBG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HUBG's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as HUBG has not reported any payouts.
Discover strong dividend paying companies
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
3.3yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
David Yeager (69 yo)
27.42yrs
Tenure
US$5,724,633
Compensation
Mr. David P. Yeager has been the Chief Executive Officer of Hub Group Inc. since March 1995. Mr. Yeager served as the President of Hub Chicago from October 1985 to December 1991. He served as a Vice Presid...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: David's total compensation ($USD5.72M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.58M).
Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: HUBG's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: HUBG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Hub Group, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Hub Group, Inc.
- Ticker: HUBG
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1971
- Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
- Sector: Transportation
- Implied Market Cap: US$2.796b
- Shares outstanding: 34.65m
- Website: https://www.hubgroup.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Hub Group, Inc.
- 2000 Clearwater Drive
- Oak Brook
- Illinois
- 60523-8809
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/08/06 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.