ATSG Stock Overview
Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally.
Air Transport Services Group Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$24.09|
|52 Week High||US$34.54|
|52 Week Low||US$23.32|
|1 Month Change||-18.45%|
|3 Month Change||-15.00%|
|1 Year Change||-8.05%|
|3 Year Change||19.49%|
|5 Year Change||-1.67%|
|Change since IPO||1,684.44%|
Recent News & Updates
With EPS Growth And More, Air Transport Services Group (NASDAQ:ATSG) Makes An Interesting Case
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
Air Transport Services: Frantic Travel Disruption Spurs Stock Profit Prospects
As if air travel wasn’t problem free, healthcare concerns have added to Air Transport Services Group’s “opportunities”. 101% of its stock is held by 267 institutions. What may they know that you may not? They know that owning the stock previously when its Reward/Risk ratio was like today’s gained capital at a 129% annual rate, 25 times in the last 5 years. And they know where and when to move on to better investing prospects. But you should learn this one first. Investment Thesis Knowing when and which stocks to own, actively and selectively, provides a continuing series of net capital gain opportunities delivering wealth accumulation or spendable income at rates which are multiples of what market-index ETFs offer. You can know what winning institutions know about capital-building stock situations by listening to what the markets tell as capital is being invested. Because today’s markets pay active investors for being in the right places at the right times. They feed off the indolence of passive-strategy investing buy&holders who frequently pass-up timely points of profitable position liquidation. Increased information technology, communication capabilities, and rapidly evolving competitive practices make this century’s investing markets far more opportune with pricing activity than the 20th century offered. But an active investment strategy requires reasonably-accurate forecasts of what to expect. Fortunately the conditions creating the “hazards” feared by the buy&holders are what provide the needed forecasts. The markets themselves, in their interactions, define what the best-informed professional practitioners see as coming-price limits. In both directions. Instead of forecasts by analysts of what may be hoped for as price/earnings targets to be sought, the markets define ranges within which prices are reasonably being expected. Ranges which warn of currently unmaintainable excesses, and of price depressions unlikely to present buying bargains for long. But if this is not a suitable practice for your situation, continue to ignore it. We are pleased to have your persistent support, rather than competition which might erode our wealth-building competitive productivity. Risk and Reward Balances Among Air Transport Competitors Let’s look at an “Opportunity Set” of comparable companies ranging from most to least attractive to consider in one particular area of activity today – Entertainment. Our best-buy bet is Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (ATSG). Here in Figure 1 is how the markets currently appraise their Reward ~ Risk trade-offs. Figure 1 blockdesk.com (used with permission) (used with permission) Upside price rewards are from the behavioral analysis (of what systems require to be done, not of emotional investor errors) by Market-Makers [MMs] as they protect their at-risk capital from possible damaging future price moves. Their potential reward forecasts are measured by the green horizontal scale. The risk dimension is of actual price drawdowns at their most extreme point while being held in previous pursuit of upside rewards similar to the ones currently being seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale. Both scales are of percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose present risk exposure exceeds its reward prospect will be above the dotted diagonal line. Capital-gain attractive to-buy issues are in the directions down and to the right. Our principal interest is in ATSG at location . A "market index" norm of reward~risk tradeoffs is offered by SPY at . Most appealing by this Figure 1 view is ATSG. Description of Subject Company Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers aircraft, flight crews, aircraft maintenance, aircraft hull and liability insurance, and aviation fuel services; and aircraft maintenance and modification services. It provides its services to delivery companies, freight forwarders, airlines, air transportation, e-commerce, package delivery, and logistics industries, as well as government customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company's in-service aircraft fleet consisted of 107 owned aircraft and ten leased aircraft. The company was formerly known as ABX Holdings, Inc. Air Transport Services Group, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in Wilmington, Ohio. Source: Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance These growth estimates have been made by, and are collected from, Wall Street analysts to suggest what conventional methodology currently produces. The typical variations across forecast horizons of different time periods illustrate the difficulty of making value comparisons when the forecast horizon is not clearly defined. The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every equity investment in the short term. There are other aspects of comparison which this map sometimes does not communicate well, particularly when general market perspectives like those of SPY are involved. Where questions of “how likely’ are present other comparative tables, like Figure 2, may be useful. Figure 2 blockdesk.com (used with permission) Why do all this math? Figure 2’s purpose is to attempt universally comparable answers, stock by stock, of a) How BIG the prospective price gain payoff may be, b) how LIKELY the payoff will be a profitable experience, c) how SOON it may happen, and d) what price drawdown RISK may be encountered during its holding period. Readers familiar with our analysis methods after quick examination of Figure 2 may wish to skip to the next section viewing price range forecast trends for ATSG. Column headers for Figure 2 define investment-choice preference elements for each row stock whose symbol appears at the left in column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, based on the specifics of its situation and current-day MM price-range forecasts. Data in red numerals are negative, usually undesirable to “long” holding positions. Table cells with yellow fills are of data for the stocks of principal interest and of all issues at the ranking column, [R]. Cells with pink highlights contain values inadequate or undesirable for capital gain prospects. The price-range forecast limits of columns [B] and [C] get defined by MM hedging actions to protect firm capital required to be put at risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by big-$ "institutional" clients. The "insurance" costs most economical are in contracts with shorter lives, which is all the MMs need, as their risk exposures usually are curable by ordinary near-term market activities. But that makes for price-range forecasts only of next weeks or months expectations. [E] measures potential upside risks for MM short positions created to fill such orders, and reward potentials for the buy-side positions so created. Prior forecasts like the present provide a history of relevant price draw-down risks for buyers. The most severe ones actually encountered are in [F], during holding periods in effort to reach [E] gains. Those are where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses. The Range Index [G] tells where today’s price lies relative to the MM community’s forecast of upper and lower limits of coming prices. Its numeric is the percentage proportion of the full low to high forecast seen below the current market price. [H] tells what proportion of the [L] sample of prior like-balance forecasts have earned gains by either having price reach its [B] target or be above its [D] entry cost at the end of a 3-month max-patience holding period limit. [ I ] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences. What makes ATSG most attractive in the group at this point in time is its ability to produce earnings most consistently at its present operating balance between share price risk and reward, the Range Index [G]. Credibility of the [E] upside prospect as evidenced in the [I] payoff is shown in [N]. Further Reward~Risk tradeoffs involve using the [H] odds for gains with the 100 - H loss odds as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F], for a combined-return score [Q]. The typical position holding period [J] on [Q] provides a figure of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preferencing. Figure 2 is row-ranked on [R] among alternative candidate securities, with ATSG in top rank.
Here's Why Air Transport Services Group (NASDAQ:ATSG) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
|ATSG||US Logistics||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ATSG exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned -17.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ATSG exceeded the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.
|ATSG Average Weekly Movement||4.7%|
|Logistics Industry Average Movement||5.6%|
|Market Average Movement||6.8%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.5%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: ATSG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ATSG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers aircraft, flight crews, aircraft maintenance, aircraft hull and liability insurance, and aviation fuel services; and aircraft maintenance and modification services, including airframe modification and heavy maintenance, component repairs, engineering services, and aircraft line maintenance. It also provides equipment maintenance services; cargo load transfer and package sorting services; crew training services; and airline express operation, line and heavy maintenance, and ground handling services.
Air Transport Services Group Fundamentals Summary
|ATSG fundamental statistics|
Is ATSG overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ATSG income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$1.14b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||2.85|
|Net Profit Margin||10.85%|
How did ATSG perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is ATSG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 6/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATSG?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is ATSG's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ATSG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|ATSG PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
FWRD Forward Air
HUBG Hub Group
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings
GXO GXO Logistics
ATSG Air Transport Services Group
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATSG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ATSG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATSG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (12.9x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ATSG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||8.4x|
|Fair PE Ratio||11.2x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATSG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ATSG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ATSG ($24.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($184.71)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ATSG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is Air Transport Services Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?
Future Growth Score1/6
Future Growth Score 1/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ATSG's forecast earnings growth (4.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: ATSG's earnings (4.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ATSG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ATSG's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ATSG's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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How has Air Transport Services Group performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score4/6
Past Performance Score 4/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ATSG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: ATSG's current net profit margins (10.8%) are higher than last year (7.5%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ATSG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 34.9% per year.
Accelerating Growth: ATSG's earnings growth over the past year (77.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (34.9% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: ATSG earnings growth over the past year (77.7%) underperformed the Logistics industry 77.7%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: ATSG's Return on Equity (14.9%) is considered low.
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How is Air Transport Services Group's financial position?
Financial Health Score4/6
Financial Health Score 4/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ATSG's short term assets ($389.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($328.3M).
Long Term Liabilities: ATSG's short term assets ($389.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.7B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ATSG's net debt to equity ratio (93%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: ATSG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 188.8% to 96.4% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: ATSG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38.7%).
Interest Coverage: ATSG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.2x coverage).
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What is Air Transport Services Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
|Air Transport Services Group Dividend Yield vs Market|
|Company (Air Transport Services Group)||n/a|
|Market Bottom 25% (US)||1.7%|
|Market Top 25% (US)||4.7%|
|Industry Average (Logistics)||3.2%|
|Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Air Transport Services Group)||n/a|
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATSG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATSG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ATSG has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Rich Corrado (62 yo)
Mr. Richard F. Corrado, also known as Rich, is the President of Air Transport Services Group, Inc., since September 16, 2019 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Director since May 7, 2020. Mr. Co...
CEO Compensation Analysis
|Rich Corrado's Compensation vs Air Transport Services Group Earnings|
|Date||Total Comp.||Salary||Company Earnings|
|Jun 30 2022||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2022||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2021||US$3m||US$689k|
|Sep 30 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2020||US$2m||US$650k|
|Sep 30 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2019||US$2m||US$537k|
|Sep 30 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2018||US$1m||US$485k|
|Sep 30 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2017||US$1m||US$373k|
|Sep 30 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2016||US$1m||US$313k|
|Sep 30 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2015||US$874k||US$294k|
Compensation vs Market: Rich's total compensation ($USD2.60M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.58M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Rich's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Experienced Management: ATSG's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.1 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: ATSG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: ATSG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
|20 Sep 22||BuyUS$3,899||Jeffrey Vorholt||Individual||150||US$25.99|
|22 Jun 22||BuyUS$10,457||Jeffrey Vorholt||Individual||357||US$29.29|
|03 Jun 22||SellUS$120,491||Deborah Loveless||Individual||3,852||US$31.28|
|20 May 22||BuyUS$8,799||Jeffrey Vorholt||Individual||300||US$29.33|
|10 May 22||BuyUS$9,973||Raymond Johns||Individual||335||US$29.77|
|10 May 22||BuyUS$30,570||Joseph Hete||Individual||1,000||US$30.57|
|25 Mar 22||BuyUS$65,877||Jeffrey Vorholt||Individual||2,000||US$32.94|
|16 Mar 22||SellUS$230,232||Michael Berger||Individual||7,240||US$31.80|
|11 Mar 22||SellUS$102,026||James Pradetto||Individual||3,242||US$31.47|
|16 Dec 21||SellUS$97,616||Deborah Loveless||Individual||3,453||US$28.27|
|30 Nov 21||BuyUS$24,899||Quint Turner||Individual||992||US$25.10|
|30 Nov 21||BuyUS$998,482||David Soaper||Individual||40,000||US$24.97|
|Owner Type||Number of Shares||Ownership Percentage|
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
Air Transport Services Group, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Air Transport Services Group, Inc.
- Ticker: ATSG
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1980
- Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
- Sector: Transportation
- Implied Market Cap: US$1.781b
- Shares outstanding: 73.93m
- Website: https://www.atsginc.com
Number of Employees
- Air Transport Services Group, Inc.
- 145 Hunter Drive
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|ATSG||NasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)||Yes||Common Stock||US||USD||Jul 2003|
|AW8||DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)||Yes||Common Stock||DE||EUR||Jul 2003|
|ATSG *||BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)||Yes||Common Stock||MX||MXN||Jul 2003|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/10/02 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/30 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.