Allegiant Travel (NasdaqGS:ALGT) - Share price, News & Analysis

ALGT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

ALGT Stock Overview

Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 85.13% per year

Earnings grew by 7.5% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (2.2%) are lower than last year (3.5%)

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Allegiant Travel Competitors

SkyWest

NasdaqGS:SKYW

US$1.2b

Sun Country Airlines Holdings

NasdaqGS:SNCY

US$1.1b

Copa Holdings

NYSE:CPA

US$3.0b

Alaska Air Group

NYSE:ALK

US$6.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Allegiant Travel
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$109.08
52 Week High	US$215.48
52 Week Low	US$102.99
Beta	1.48
1 Month Change	-3.98%
3 Month Change	-23.67%
1 Year Change	-43.12%
3 Year Change	-23.62%
5 Year Change	-8.18%
Change since IPO	334.58%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 10

Allegiant Travel announces $500M senior note offering

Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT) on Wednesday announced a $500M private offering of senior secured notes due 2027 to investors. The collateral that will secure the notes currently secures ALGT's existing $150M 8.5% senior secured notes due 2024 and its term loan B. ALGT will use net proceeds from note offering, along with cash on hand, to repay its term loan B, which has an outstanding principal amount of $533M.

Aug 04

Some Investors May Be Worried About Allegiant Travel's (NASDAQ:ALGT) Returns On Capital

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a...

Shareholder Returns

	ALGT	US Airlines	US Market
7D	-1.1%	2.7%	3.2%
1Y	-43.1%	-20.6%	-10.2%

Return vs Industry: ALGT underperformed the US Airlines industry which returned -20.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALGT underperformed the US Market which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALGT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALGT volatility
ALGT Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Airlines Industry Average Movement	8.0%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: ALGT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALGT's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1997	5,226	John Redmond	https://www.allegiantair.com

Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft.

Allegiant Travel Fundamentals Summary

How do Allegiant Travel's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALGT fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.96b
Earnings (TTM)	US$45.67m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.09b

43.0x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is ALGT overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALGT income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.09b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.65b
Gross Profit	US$438.84m
Other Expenses	US$393.18m
Earnings	US$45.67m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.54
Gross Margin	21.03%
Net Profit Margin	2.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	159.2%

How did ALGT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALGT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALGT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALGT. This is calculated by dividing ALGT's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALGT's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.96b

ALGT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.4x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALGT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALGT PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALGT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	48.4x
SKYW SkyWest	14.2x	18.5%	US$1.2b
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings	139.6x	96.1%	US$1.1b
CPA Copa Holdings	11x	23.4%	US$3.0b
ALK Alaska Air Group	28.9x	44.0%	US$6.0b
ALGT Allegiant Travel	43x	85.1%	US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALGT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43x) compared to the peer average (48.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALGT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALGT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43x) compared to the US Airlines industry average (23.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALGT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALGT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	43x
Fair PE Ratio	71.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALGT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALGT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALGT's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALGT's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Allegiant Travel forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

85.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALGT's forecast earnings growth (85.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ALGT's earnings (85.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALGT's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALGT's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALGT's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALGT's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (20%).

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Past Performance

How has Allegiant Travel performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALGT has a large one-off gain of $40.6M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ALGT's current net profit margins (2.2%) are lower than last year (3.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALGT's earnings have declined by 27.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALGT's earnings growth over the past year (7.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (-27.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALGT earnings growth over the past year (7.5%) exceeded the Airlines industry 0.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALGT's Return on Equity (3.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Allegiant Travel's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALGT's short term assets ($1.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($918.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALGT's short term assets ($1.4B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALGT's net debt to equity ratio (61%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ALGT's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 191.2% to 159.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALGT's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (18.4%).

Interest Coverage: ALGT's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Allegiant Travel current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALGT's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALGT's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALGT's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALGT's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: ALGT is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ALGT has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Redmond (63 yo)

0.17

Tenure

Mr. John T. Redmond had been an Interim Chief Executive Officer of Allegiant Travel Company since June 01, 2022. He serves as Chief Executive Officer at Allegiant Travel Company since 2022. He had been the...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALGT's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALGT's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ALGT insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/13 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31