Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Communications industry in the United States have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) looks to be giving off some sell signals with its 3x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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See our latest analysis for Ciena

How Ciena Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Ciena has been relatively sluggish. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/S ratio from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Ciena will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Ciena?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Ciena would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.1%. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 12% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 10% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 11% per year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Ciena is trading at a high P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Seeing as its revenues are forecast to grow in line with the wider industry, it would appear that Ciena currently trades on a higher than expected P/S. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the company can jump ahead of the rest of the industry in the short-term, it'll be a challenge to maintain the share price at current levels.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Ciena has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.