Is The Trimble Rally Justified After Strong 2025 Gains And DCF Upside?

• If you are wondering whether Trimble is still attractively priced today, or if the easy money has already been made, you are not alone. That is exactly what we are going to unpack here.
• The stock has quietly climbed to around $82.30, delivering a 1.3% gain over the last week, 4.7% over the past month, and 18.1% year to date, on top of a 42.6% return over three years.
• Much of this momentum has been driven by continued optimism around Trimble’s role in connected construction and positioning technologies, as investors warm to its mix of hardware, software, and recurring revenue. Broader enthusiasm for infrastructure digitization and automation has also helped support the share price, as the market reassesses how durable that growth could be.
• Despite this, Trimble only scores a 1/6 valuation check score, suggesting the market may already be pricing in a lot of that optimism. Next, we will break down how different valuation methods see the stock and finish by looking at a more insightful way to judge its real value.

Trimble scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Trimble Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. For Trimble, this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with its last twelve months Free Cash Flow of about $307.6 Million and then applies analyst forecasts for the next few years, with the remaining years extrapolated by Simply Wall St.

Under this framework, Trimble’s Free Cash Flow is projected to rise to around $1.84 Billion by 2035, with intermediate years stepping up steadily from roughly $811 Million in 2026 to more than $1.7 Billion early in the next decade. When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $102.54 per share.

Compared with the recent market price of about $82.30, the DCF output indicates that the stock is trading at a 19.7% discount. This suggests that investors are not fully paying for the projected cash flow growth yet.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Trimble is undervalued by 19.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 909 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Trimble.

Approach 2: Trimble Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Trimble, the Price to Earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to gauge valuation because it links what investors pay directly to the profits the business is generating today.

In general, faster earnings growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher, or more expensive, PE ratio, while slower growth or higher risk should translate into a lower, cheaper multiple. Trimble currently trades on a PE of about 54.8x, which is well above both the broader electronic industry average of roughly 24.9x and the peer group average of around 38.1x, implying the market is already paying up for its growth prospects.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework refines this by estimating what a reasonable PE should be for Trimble, considering its earnings growth profile, margins, industry, market cap and specific risk factors. On this basis, Trimble’s Fair Ratio is about 31.5x, meaning the current 54.8x multiple sits materially above what would be expected once those fundamentals are accounted for. That points to the shares looking stretched on an earnings multiple basis.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Trimble Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your view of Trimble’s story to a set of forecasts for its future revenue, earnings and margins. These then flow through to a Fair Value you can compare against today’s price to help you decide whether to buy, hold or sell. That Fair Value will automatically update as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a bullish Trimble Narrative around its software transition and recurring revenue, landing closer to the higher analyst target of about $100 per share. Another, more cautious investor might focus on government spending risks and competitive pressure, anchoring nearer the low end around $84. Narratives lets both perspectives live side by side so you can see which story, and which valuation, makes more sense to you.

Do you think there's more to the story for Trimble? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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