Super Micro Computer (NasdaqGS:SMCI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SMCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SMCI ($58.19) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($41.15)

SMCI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

SMCI Stock Overview

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (16.5x) is below the Tech industry average (17x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 23.5% per year

Earnings grew by 101.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Super Micro Computer Competitors

3D Systems

NYSE:DDD

US$1.5b

Avid Technology

NasdaqGS:AVID

US$1.2b

Western Digital

NasdaqGS:WDC

US$14.5b

Seagate Technology Holdings

NasdaqGS:STX

US$16.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Super Micro Computer
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$58.19
52 Week High	US$61.98
52 Week Low	US$34.11
Beta	1.36
1 Month Change	43.82%
3 Month Change	17.91%
1 Year Change	50.87%
3 Year Change	242.29%
5 Year Change	113.15%
Change since IPO	564.27%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 01

Here's Why Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Shareholder Returns

	SMCI	US Tech	US Market
7D	3.6%	3.0%	0.3%
1Y	50.9%	12.1%	-13.5%

Return vs Industry: SMCI exceeded the US Tech industry which returned 11.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SMCI exceeded the US Market which returned -13% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SMCI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SMCI volatility
SMCI Average Weekly Movement	7.7%
Tech Industry Average Movement	8.3%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: SMCI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SMCI's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	4,155	Charles Liang	https://www.supermicro.com

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture. Its solutions range from complete server, storage, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server management software, and server sub-systems, as well as support and services. The company also provides application-optimized server solutions, including rackmount and blade servers, storage systems, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, and SuperDoctor 5.

Super Micro Computer Fundamentals Summary

How do Super Micro Computer's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SMCI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.02b
Earnings (TTM)	US$183.50m
Revenue (TTM)	US$4.63b

16.5x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is SMCI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SMCI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$4.63b
Cost of Revenue	US$3.97b
Gross Profit	US$658.17m
Other Expenses	US$474.67m
Earnings	US$183.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.54
Gross Margin	14.22%
Net Profit Margin	3.96%
Debt/Equity Ratio	43.0%

How did SMCI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SMCI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMCI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SMCI. This is calculated by dividing SMCI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SMCI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.02b

SMCI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13.8x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMCI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SMCI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMCI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.4x
DDD 3D Systems	5.9x	-54.5%	US$1.5b
AVID Avid Technology	24.4x	17.3%	US$1.2b
WDC Western Digital	9.7x	2.7%	US$14.5b
STX Seagate Technology Holdings	9.8x	0.01%	US$16.1b
SMCI Super Micro Computer	16.5x	23.5%	US$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMCI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMCI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Tech Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the US Tech industry average (17x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMCI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMCI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.5x
Fair PE Ratio	28.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMCI ($58.19) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($41.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMCI is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Super Micro Computer forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

23.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SMCI's forecast earnings growth (23.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: SMCI's earnings (23.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SMCI's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SMCI's revenue (16.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SMCI's revenue (16.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if SMCI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Super Micro Computer performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

22.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SMCI has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SMCI's current net profit margins (4%) are higher than last year (2.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SMCI's earnings have grown significantly by 22% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SMCI's earnings growth over the past year (101.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (22% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SMCI earnings growth over the past year (101.3%) exceeded the Tech industry 92.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SMCI's Return on Equity (14.4%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Super Micro Computer's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SMCI's short term assets ($2.7B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: SMCI's short term assets ($2.7B) exceed its long term liabilities ($301.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SMCI's net debt to equity ratio (23.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: SMCI's debt to equity ratio has increased from 19.3% to 43% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SMCI's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: SMCI earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Super Micro Computer current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate SMCI's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate SMCI's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SMCI's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SMCI's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as SMCI has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Charles Liang (64 yo)

28.92yrs

Tenure

US$18,098,671

Compensation

Mr. Charles Liang founded Super Micro Computer, Inc. in September 1993 and has been its Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President since September 1993. Mr. Liang has been developing serv...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Charles's total compensation ($USD18.10M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.59M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Charles's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SMCI's management team is considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SMCI's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/09 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/09 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30