We Think Teradata's (NYSE:TDC) Statutory Profit Might Understate Its Earnings Potential

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 20, 2021

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Teradata (NYSE:TDC).

We like the fact that Teradata made a profit of US$105.0m on its revenue of US$1.84b, in the last year.

Check out our latest analysis for Teradata

NYSE:TDC Earnings and Revenue History January 20th 2021

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. Therefore, we think it's worth taking a closer look at Teradata's cashflow, as well as examining the impact that a tax benefit and unusual items have had on its reported profit. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Teradata's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, Teradata recorded an accrual ratio of -0.33. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$212m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of US$105.0m. Teradata's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Teradata's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$23m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Teradata took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to September 2020. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Teradata received a tax benefit of US$144m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On Teradata's Profit Performance

Summing up, Teradata's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, while its tax benefit is having the opposite effect. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Teradata's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Teradata at this point in time. To help with this, we've discovered 5 warning signs (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Teradata.

Our examination of Teradata has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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