Is It Worth Considering International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) For Its Upcoming Dividend?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 04, 2020
NYSE:IBM

Readers hoping to buy International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. If you purchase the stock on or after the 9th of November, you won't be eligible to receive this dividend, when it is paid on the 10th of December.

International Business Machines's next dividend payment will be US$1.63 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$6.52 per share. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that International Business Machines has a trailing yield of 5.7% on the current share price of $114.16. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. As a result, readers should always check whether International Business Machines has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.

Check out our latest analysis for International Business Machines

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. International Business Machines is paying out an acceptable 73% of its profit, a common payout level among most companies. That said, even highly profitable companies sometimes might not generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which is why we should always check if the dividend is covered by cash flow. Fortunately, it paid out only 46% of its free cash flow in the past year.

It's positive to see that International Business Machines's dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

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NYSE:IBM Historic Dividend November 4th 2020

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

When earnings decline, dividend companies become much harder to analyse and own safely. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. With that in mind, we're discomforted by International Business Machines's 11% per annum decline in earnings in the past five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. International Business Machines has delivered 11% dividend growth per year on average over the past 10 years. That's interesting, but the combination of a growing dividend despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out more of the company's profits. This can be valuable for shareholders, but it can't go on forever.

Final Takeaway

Should investors buy International Business Machines for the upcoming dividend? The payout ratios are within a reasonable range, implying the dividend may be sustainable. Declining earnings are a serious concern, however, and could pose a threat to the dividend in future. Overall we're not hugely bearish on the stock, but there are likely better dividend investments out there.

If you want to look further into International Business Machines, it's worth knowing the risks this business faces. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for International Business Machines you should be aware of.

We wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see, though. Here's a list of interesting dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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