Is Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) Potentially Undervalued?

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO), which is in the software business, and is based in United States, saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a well-established company, which tends to be well-covered by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Fair Isaac’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Fair Isaac

What is Fair Isaac worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Fair Isaac’s ratio of 55.21x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 56.75x, which means if you buy Fair Isaac today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that Fair Isaac should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Fair Isaac’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Fair Isaac?

NYSE:FICO Past and Future Earnings, April 26th 2019
NYSE:FICO Past and Future Earnings, April 26th 2019
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Fair Isaac’s earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 27%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in FICO’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at FICO? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FICO, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for FICO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Fair Isaac. You can find everything you need to know about Fair Isaac in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Fair Isaac, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.