Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT)

Investors were disappointed with Riot Platforms, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:RIOT) earnings, despite the strong profit numbers. We did some digging and found some worrying underlying problems.

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Zooming In On Riot Platforms' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to September 2025, Riot Platforms recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$992m despite its profit of US$164.0m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of US$992m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively.

Check out our latest analysis for Riot Platforms

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Riot Platforms issued 12% more new shares over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Riot Platforms' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Riot Platforms' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Three years ago, Riot Platforms lost money. The good news is that profit was up 1,222% in the last twelve months. But EPS was less impressive, up only 873% in that time. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Riot Platforms can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Unfortunately (in the short term) Riot Platforms saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth US$97m. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Riot Platforms took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to September 2025. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Riot Platforms' Profit Performance

Summing up, Riot Platforms' unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. On top of that, the dilution means that shareholders now own less of the company. After taking into account all the aforementioned observations we think that Riot Platforms' profits probably give a generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Riot Platforms (2 can't be ignored) you should be familiar with.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.