Qualys (QLYS) shares have been moving within a fairly tight range this week, catching the attention of investors looking at recent momentum. With the stock up 15% over the past month, some are now weighing its valuation.
Although Qualys has posted a notable 14.9% 1-month share price return, its longer-term trajectory paints a mixed picture, with the 1-year total shareholder return still in the red at -8.3%. This recent increase suggests renewed interest, but momentum is only just starting to build after a relatively muted year.
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Despite the recent surge, Qualys shares are trading just below their analyst price target. Fundamentals indicate only modest growth. Is there still value to be found here, or have markets already priced in further gains?
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Most Popular Narrative: 1% Undervalued
Qualys shares are trading just below the most widely followed narrative’s fair value estimate of $142.56, which signals near alignment with the last close price of $140.85. That tight margin between consensus fair value and market price sets the scene for a close look at the influential growth drivers behind this narrative.
"Adoption of Qualys' new cloud-native risk operations center (ROC) and Agentic AI platform positions the company as a leading pre-breach risk management provider, offering unified orchestration, automation, and remediation across both Qualys and non-Qualys data; this opens incremental greenfield opportunities and should support higher ARPU and expanded TAM, leading to durable revenue and earnings growth."
The engine powering this narrative is not just marketing hype. It is driven by bold projections for future revenues, profits, and even a shrinking share count. The anticipated margin and growth rate shifts are the real wildcard. Want to know which financial leaps analysts are betting on? See how aggressive forecasts drive this near-fair value target.
However, rapid shifts in AI security and unpredictable customer adoption of new pricing could quickly undermine the bullish view, so investors remain watchful.
Looking at Qualys through the lens of earnings multiples offers a fresh perspective. The company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.7x, below the industry average of 30.8x and well under its peers' average of 57.4x. However, it sits above the market-implied fair ratio of 25.4x, indicating Qualys trades at a slight premium compared to broader trends. Is this a sign of justified optimism, or does it leave more room for volatility ahead?
If you have a different perspective or want to analyze the numbers on your own terms, you can easily craft your personalized view in just a few minutes. Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Qualys.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Qualys might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
