Marqeta (NasdaqGS:MQ) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MQ ($10.57) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($30.55)

MQ fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

MQ Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 65.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 22.89% per year

Revenue grew by 64.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Marqeta Competitors

ExlService Holdings

NasdaqGS:EXLS

US$5.7b

Western Union

NYSE:WU

US$6.3b

Euronet Worldwide

NasdaqGS:EEFT

US$4.9b

PagSeguro Digital

NYSE:PAGS

US$4.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Marqeta
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$10.57
52 Week High	US$37.90
52 Week Low	US$6.05
Beta	0
1 Month Change	15.27%
3 Month Change	34.99%
1 Year Change	-61.25%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-65.37%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 24

Marqeta: FinTech Backbone With A $30 Trillion Market Opportunity

Marqeta is a modern card issuing and processing platform. Their Customers include Fintech Disrupters such as Square, DoorDash, Klarna, Uber, Coinbase and more. The company has grown their revenue at a meteoric 54% year over year. The stock is now undervalued intrinsically, after the recent pullback in share price, according to my discounted cash flow model. Marqeta has a fortress balance sheet, with $1.6 billion in cash & short-term investments with no debt.

May 30

Marqeta: Strong Start To The Year; Remaining Focused On Profitability

Marqeta reported Q1 revenue and TPV growth of 54% and 53% respectively, both beating expectations. 2022 revenue growth is expected to be just shy of 40%, though adjusted EBITDA loss margin is expected to be in the high-single digits. With the stock down around 65% from all-time highs, there remains a lot of long-term value with the company trading under 5x 2023 revenue.

Shareholder Returns

	MQ	US IT	US Market
7D	10.2%	3.7%	1.0%
1Y	-61.3%	-28.3%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: MQ underperformed the US IT industry which returned -28.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MQ underperformed the US Market which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MQ's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MQ volatility
MQ Average Weekly Movement	12.8%
IT Industry Average Movement	10.0%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: MQ is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 13% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MQ's weekly volatility (13%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2010	856	Jason Gardner	https://www.marqeta.com

Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open application programming interface platform that delivers card issuing and transaction processing services to developers, technical product managers, and visionary entrepreneurs. It offers its solutions in various verticals, including commerce disruptors, digital banks, tech giants, and financial institutions. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 200 customers.

Marqeta Fundamentals Summary

How do Marqeta's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MQ fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$5.75b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$211.69m
Revenue (TTM)	US$575.29m

10.0x

P/S Ratio

-27.2x

P/E Ratio

Is MQ overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MQ income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$575.29m
Cost of Revenue	US$318.72m
Gross Profit	US$256.57m
Other Expenses	US$468.26m
Earnings	-US$211.69m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.39
Gross Margin	44.60%
Net Profit Margin	-36.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did MQ perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MQ?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MQ. This is calculated by dividing MQ's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MQ's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$5.75b

MQ key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-20.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MQ's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

MQ PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for MQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.7x
EXLS ExlService Holdings	4.5x	12.1%	US$5.7b
WU Western Union	1.3x	0.8%	US$6.3b
EEFT Euronet Worldwide	1.5x	12.1%	US$4.9b
PAGS PagSeguro Digital	2.1x	18.0%	US$4.8b
MQ Marqeta	10x	22.9%	US$5.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US IT Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10x) compared to the US IT industry average (2.9x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MQ's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MQ PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	10x
Fair PS Ratio	6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MQ ($10.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Marqeta forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

1.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MQ is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: MQ is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: MQ is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MQ's revenue (22.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MQ's revenue (22.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MQ is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Marqeta performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-360.2%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MQ is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: MQ is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if MQ's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MQ's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: MQ is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the IT industry (19.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MQ has a negative Return on Equity (-13.71%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Marqeta's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MQ's short term assets ($1.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($233.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: MQ's short term assets ($1.8B) exceed its long term liabilities ($16.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MQ is debt free.

Reducing Debt: MQ has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: MQ has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if MQ has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Marqeta current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate MQ's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate MQ's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MQ's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MQ's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as MQ has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jason Gardner (52 yo)

11.75yrs

Tenure

US$224,387,431

Compensation

Mr. Jason M. Gardner is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Marqeta, Inc since November 2010. Mr. Gardner serves as Chairperson of the Board at Marqeta, Inc. Mr. Gardner served as an Advising Founde...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jason's total compensation ($USD224.39M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.35M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jason's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MQ's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: MQ's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31