Appian Corporation (NASDAQ:APPN), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGM over the last few months, increasing to US$224 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$77.49. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Appian's current trading price of US$82.32 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Appian’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Appian still cheap?
According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 40%, trading at US$82.32 compared to my intrinsic value of $58.95. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Appian’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Appian generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -18% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Appian. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe APPN is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on APPN for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. While conducting our analysis, we found that Appian has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.
If you are no longer interested in Appian, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you’re looking to trade Appian, open an account with the lowest-cost* platform trusted by professionals, Interactive Brokers. Their clients from over 200 countries and territories trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds worldwide from a single integrated account. Promoted
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.