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ADSK

Autodesk NasdaqGS:ADSK Stock Report

Last Price

US$226.32

Market Cap

US$49.2b

7D

3.6%

1Y

-31.1%

Updated

10 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
ADSK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

ADSK Stock Overview

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide.

Autodesk Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Autodesk
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$226.32
52 Week HighUS$344.39
52 Week LowUS$163.20
Beta1.52
1 Month Change28.07%
3 Month Change22.30%
1 Year Change-31.13%
3 Year Change54.04%
5 Year Change104.83%
Change since IPO4,398.29%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 01
The Return Trends At Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) Look Promising

The Return Trends At Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) Look Promising

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...

Jul 29

Autodesk: Why This Tech Giant Is Now In Buy Range

Autodesk is a leading provider of design and engineering software, with a moat-worthy product portfolio. The company has a mostly subscription business model with durable growth and profitability. The beaten-down share price sets it up for potentially strong long-term returns. Technology stocks remain heavily beaten down from their highs, with many investors having capitulated on this sector. While riskier and unproven small cap names probably deserved this market drubbing, some of the bigger and moat-worthy names may deserve a second look. I don't believe the bear market on tech stocks will last forever, and this may be the time to look at quality names at a discount. This brings me to Autodesk (ADSK), which is a large cap company that specializes in design software with broad market applications. In this article, I highlight why now may be a good time to pick up the shares for potentially strong long-term returns, so let's get started. Why ADSK? Autodesk is a software company whose products are recognized as the global industry standard for computer-aided design. Industry professionals utilize ADSK's software to design and model buildings, transportation systems, manufactured products, animations, and video games. ADSK operates in all geographies worldwide, and in the trailing 12 months, generated $4.4 billion in total revenue. Autodesk's key competitive advantage stems from the 'network effect' that its products have enjoyed, with over 100 million people who use its flagship product AutoCAD, as well as Revit, Maya, 3ds Max, and more. This high number of industry professionals who have dedicated their career and resources to becoming proficient in the software results in sticky customer loyalty, making them unlikely to switch and restart a steep learning curve on another product. This is further reinforced by Autodesk building a healthy ecosystem around courseware and certifications. As shown below, ADSK has enjoyed nearly unfettered growth since inception, with revenue more than doubling over the past 5 years. ADSK Revenues (Seeking Alpha) It also sports strong profitability given the durable proprietary nature of its software products. As shown below, ADSK scores an A grade with sector leading EBITDA and Net Income Margins of 20% and 11%, respectively. ADSK Profitability (Seeking Alpha) Meanwhile, it continues to demonstrate strong growth, with revenue rising by 18% YoY to $1.17 billion in Q1 FY23 (ended in April). Also encouraging, profitability increased as adjusted operating margin improved by 6 percentage points to 34%. These results were driven by broad strengths across ADSK's portfolio and regions. ADSK is also benefitting from switching the vast majority of its installed base to subscription licenses, which comes with the benefit of recurring revenues that now represent 95% of total revenue. This results in better revenue predictability due to a more stable revenue stream compared to perpetual licenses, with have more bump refresh cycles. Looking forward, ADSK stands to benefit from increased infrastructure spend among worldwide governments. Management expressed their ability to deliver on the software tools to enable planning for these projects, as noted during the recent conference call: The combination of Revit, Civil 3D, Navisworks, Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, InfraWorks, and more recently Autodesk Construction Cloud and Innovyze delivers industry-leading end-to-end capabilities in transportation and water from planning and design to construction and operations. And our customers can extend those capabilities through our partnerships with Aurigo in capital planning and ESRI in geospatial mapping. This is important because governments and asset owners across the globe are investing growing amounts in next-generation infrastructure to meet the societal and environmental needs of the next century and are retooling now to do it. That equals opportunity for Autodesk. For example, in the first quarter, we signed our second largest EBA ever with a large global infrastructure company in a deal that included Innovyze and Autodesk Build for the first time. Risks to Autodesk include an economic downturn, new entrants into the space, and the full impact of its pulling out of Russia due to the war in Ukraine.

Jul 18

Autodesk: Revenue Growth Driven By Transition To Direct Sales

We determined the company's revenue growth drivers, the key growth driver being its transition towards its direct sales channel with the highest average revenue growth of 22.3% (5-year average). We also believe its growth could continue to be supported by its AEC and AutoCAD product growth as it released new product enhancements and extended its collaboration with large customers. As it expands internationally, we believe the Asia Pacific region could also support its revenue growth as it released its Construction Cloud solution and rising BIM penetration rates in the region. Based in California, Autodesk, Inc (ADSK) is a software company specializing in CAD software. We analyzed the company as its average revenue growth had accelerated in the past 5 years from 7.91% (10-year average) to 17.2%. We looked into its revenue breakdown by its product families, geography and distribution channels to determine which segment (which has greater than 10% of revenue) had driven its growth. Products Revenue Growth Driven By AutoCAD and AEC Segment Autodesk Revenue By Product Family ($ mln) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 2023 (YoY) Average Architecture, Engineering and Construction ('AEC') 881 867 1,022 1,377 1,649 1,960 518 Growth % -1.6% 17.9% 34.8% 19.7% 18.9% 17% 17.8% Manufacturing 626 589 616 726 799 876 225 Growth % -5.8% 4.6% 17.8% 10.0% 9.7% 14% 8.4% AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT 327 401 732 948 1,099 1,253 346 Growth % 22.9% 82.3% 29.6% 15.9% 14.0% 21% 30.9% Media and Entertainment 138.9 152 182 199.2 219.4 258.9 68 Growth % 9.4% 19.7% 9.5% 10.1% 18.0% 24% 15.1% Other 58.7 47.5 18.2 23.7 24.4 38.6 13 Growth % -19.1% -61.7% 30.2% 3.0% 58.2% 44% 9.1% Total net revenue 2,031 2,057 2,570 3,274 3,790 4,386 1,170 Growth % 1.3% 25.0% 27.4% 15.8% 15.7% 18% 17.2% Source: Autodesk, Khaveen Investments Based on its revenue breakdown, its largest product family is Architecture, Engineering and Construction ((AEC)) which represented 45% of its revenues in FY2022 and had an average growth of 17.8% which was above its total company average of 17.2%. According to management in its latest earnings briefing, the company had extended its partnerships with existing customers such as AECOM, a Fortune 500 consulting firm involved in design, planning and construction management, for its AEC segment with a renewed enterprise business arrangement (EBA) with Autodesk. Moreover, the company also announced new features including Bridge to enable greater collaboration between construction teams. However, its second-largest product family is AutoCAD which represented 29% of revenue but had a superior average growth of 30.9% in the past 5 years including Q1 2023 and well above its total revenue average growth of 17.2%. That said, its revenue growth was skewed upwards by the surge in growth of 82.3% in 2019 but its average growth excluding 2019 is 20.7% which still makes it the fastest growing segment. The company continued to focus on its AutoCAD products with product enhancements. For example, it recently released a set of new features for its 2023 software version. On the other hand, its other segments' growth including Manufacturing (8.4%) consistently had below-average growth in the past 5 years. In contrast, its Media and Entertainment segment’s growth accelerated in 2022 and continued to grow by 24% in Q1 2023 but only accounted for 6% of total revenue while its other revenue growth had been volatile with an average of 9.1%. Thus, we expect its revenue growth to be driven by both its AutoCAD and AEC segments as these segments had been its fastest growing segments at 30.9% and 17.8% respectively, and were the only segments with above company average growth (17.2%) as well as taking into consideration the company's focus on improving its AutoCAD and AEC products with new features and extended partnerships with large enterprise customers. Revenue Growth Supported By Expansion In The Asia Pacific Autodesk Revenue By Geographic Region ($ mln) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 2023 Average U.S. 742 740 875 1109 1282 1457 398 Growth % -0.2% 18.1% 26.8% 15.6% 13.6% 23% 16.2% Other Americas 130 131 175 227 261 309 86 Growth % 0.7% 34.1% 29.4% 14.9% 18.4% 28% 20.9% Total Americas 872 871 1050 1336 1542 1765 484 Growth % -0.1% 20.5% 27.2% 15.5% 14.4% 24% 16.9% Europe, Middle East and Africa 800 815 1034 1304 1473 1700 449 Growth % 1.9% 26.8% 26.0% 13.0% 15.5% 17% 16.7% Asia Pacific 359 370 486 635 775 921 237 Growth % 3.2% 31.2% 30.8% 22.1% 18.8% 10% 19.3% Total net revenue 2031 2057 2570 3274 3790 4386 1,170 Growth % 1.3% 25.0% 27.4% 15.8% 15.7% 18% 17.2% Source: Autodesk, Khaveen Investments Based on the table above, its revenue geography is split across the Americas (the US and other Americas), EMEA and the Asia Pacific. The Americas accounted for its largest revenue in 2022 (40.2%) followed by EMEA (38.8%) and lastly Asia Pacific as its smallest (21%). That said, its average revenue growth from the total Americas (16.9%) had been slightly below its total company average (17.2%) as its US segment average growth was lower at only 16.2%. Notwithstanding, its total Americas growth had accelerated in Q1 2023 at 24% YoY as both US and other Americas growth increased. On the other hand, its EMEA and the Asia Pacific had a 5-year average growth of 16.7% and 19.3% respectively. For the Asia Pacific segment, its growth had been above its total average in the past 5 years but slowed down in Q1 2023. However, we believe this slowdown is attributable to the increased Covid-19 lockdowns in China this year and is likely to recover beyond 2022. Based on its Investor Day 2021 presentation, the company highlighted the increase of the penetration rate of Building Information Modeling (BIM) tools by 15% in Japan from FY2020 to FY2022 compared to the US where it increased by 9% to 36%, which indicates the growing demand for its software products in the region. Moreover, the company also recently in May announced its Autodesk Construction Cloud launch in APAC, highlighted by management in its latest earnings briefing. Autodesk Construction Cloud reported its best-ever new business growth quarter, with an increasing proportion of that growth coming from EMEA and APAC and growing contract size and renewal rates. - Andrew Anagnost, Chief Executive Officer Thus, we expect the company’s revenue growth to be driven by its exposure to the Asia Pacific, despite the slowdown in Q1 2023, with its superior average revenue growth to its total Americas and EMEA segments and increase in penetration rates for BIM tools as well as the company continues to expand into the region such as its launch of its Construction Cloud. Shift Towards Higher Growth Direct Sales Channel Autodesk Revenue By Sales Channel ($ mln) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 2023 Average Indirect 1,462 1,440 1,831 2,282 2,600 2,849 769 Growth -1.6% 27.2% 24.7% 13.9% 9.6% 16% 15.0% Direct 569 617 739 992 1,190 1,537 401 Growth 8.5% 19.8% 34.2% 20.0% 29.1% 22% 22.3% Total net revenue 2,031 2,057 2,570 3,274 3,790 4,386 1,170 Growth 1.3% 25.0% 27.4% 15.8% 15.7% 18% 17.2%

Jul 17
What Is Autodesk, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ADSK) Share Price Doing?

What Is Autodesk, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ADSK) Share Price Doing?

Let's talk about the popular Autodesk, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ADSK ). The company's shares received a lot of attention from a...

Jun 24

Autodesk: A Comeback Is Possible, But It Won't Be Massive

Shares of Autodesk have fallen more than 30% this year, roughly in line with other growth tech stocks. Relative to peers, however, Autodesk's ~8x forward revenue multiple is still sitting at quite rich levels that don't have much room to rebound. As strong as Autodesk is, it's already the leader in the CAD space, and it doesn't have meaningful drivers to accelerate beyond its current 18% y/y growth. I would only call the stock a solid buy if it reaches a low-teens multiple of free cash flow.

Shareholder Returns

ADSKUS SoftwareUS Market
7D3.6%-0.6%1.2%
1Y-31.1%-14.6%-11.6%

Return vs Industry: ADSK underperformed the US Software industry which returned -17.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ADSK underperformed the US Market which returned -13.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ADSK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ADSK volatility
ADSK Average Weekly Movement7.6%
Software Industry Average Movement10.5%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: ADSK is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ADSK's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
198212,600Andrew Anagnosthttps://www.autodesk.com

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry.

Autodesk Fundamentals Summary

How do Autodesk's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ADSK fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$49.17b
Earnings (TTM)US$487.00m
Revenue (TTM)US$4.57b

101.0x

P/E Ratio

10.8x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ADSK income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$4.57b
Cost of RevenueUS$386.00m
Gross ProfitUS$4.18b
Other ExpensesUS$3.69b
EarningsUS$487.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 24, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)2.24
Gross Margin91.55%
Net Profit Margin10.66%
Debt/Equity Ratio386.0%

How did ADSK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ADSK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADSK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ADSK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA56.3x
PEG Ratio3.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADSK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ADSK PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for ADSK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average75x
NEM Nemetschek
51.3x13.7%€8.3b
ANSS ANSYS
54.6x13.7%US$25.0b
DSY Dassault Systèmes
69.9x18.1%€56.2b
BSY Bentley Systems
124.3x21.3%US$12.8b
ADSK Autodesk
101x31.1%US$49.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADSK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101x) compared to the peer average (75x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADSK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADSK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101x) compared to the US Software industry average (43.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADSK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADSK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio101x
Fair PE Ratio47.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADSK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADSK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADSK ($226.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($299.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADSK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Autodesk forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


31.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ADSK's forecast earnings growth (31.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ADSK's earnings (31.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ADSK's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ADSK's revenue (12.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ADSK's revenue (12.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ADSK's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (99.3%).


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Past Performance

How has Autodesk performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


70.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ADSK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ADSK's current net profit margins (10.7%) are lower than last year (33.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ADSK has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 70.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: ADSK's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ADSK had negative earnings growth (-62.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Software industry average (18.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst ADSK's Return on Equity (71.51%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


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Financial Health

How is Autodesk's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ADSK's short term assets ($2.4B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($3.8B).

Long Term Liabilities: ADSK's short term assets ($2.4B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ADSK's net debt to equity ratio (153.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ADSK's debt to equity ratio has increased from 295% to 386% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ADSK's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (62%).

Interest Coverage: ADSK's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Autodesk current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ADSK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ADSK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ADSK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ADSK's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ADSK has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Andrew Anagnost (57 yo)

5.17yrs

Tenure

US$22,095,521

Compensation

Dr. Andrew Anagnost has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Autodesk, Inc. since June 19, 2017. He served as an Interim Chief Financial Officer at Autodesk, Inc. since January 19, 2021 until Marc...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Andrew's total compensation ($USD22.10M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.03M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Andrew's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ADSK's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: ADSK's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ADSK insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Autodesk, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Autodesk, Inc.
  • Ticker: ADSK
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1982
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Implied Market Cap: US$49.173b
  • Shares outstanding: 217.27m
  • Website: https://www.autodesk.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Autodesk, Inc.
  • 111 McInnis Parkway
  • San Rafael
  • California
  • 94903
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings2022/04/30
Annual Earnings2022/01/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.