Adeia Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Adeia Inc. (NASDAQ:ADEA) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Unfortunately, Adeia delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$87m were 12% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.08 missed estimates by 50%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the three analysts covering Adeia are now predicting revenues of US$408.9m in 2026. If met, this would reflect an okay 7.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 45% to US$0.97. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$422.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.82 in 2026. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the nice gain to to the earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Adeia

The average price target increased 7.7% to US$19.75, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is more important to the company's valuation than its revenue. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Adeia analyst has a price target of US$27.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Adeia's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.1% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 18% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Adeia's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Adeia following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Adeia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Adeia , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.