Does JinkoSolar’s Valuation Reflect Growth After Recent Supply Deals and Industry Shifts?

• Wondering if JinkoSolar Holding’s current share price really reflects its value? You’re not alone, and we’re about to unpack just how much the market might be getting it right or wrong.
• JinkoSolar’s stock has jumped 10% in the last week, barely moved over the last month, and is still down 6.5% over the past year. This suggests that investor sentiment may be shifting, but underlying risks or opportunities remain in play.
• Recent headlines have focused on the global solar industry’s evolving regulatory landscape and JinkoSolar’s expanded supply deals in new markets. Both of these developments have sparked investor debate and are adding fuel to ongoing conversations about where the stock could head next.
• When it comes to fundamentals, JinkoSolar scores a 5 out of 6 on our value checks, indicating it is undervalued by most measures. Let's break down how we arrive at that number using traditional methods, and save some room to reveal a smarter way to think about valuation at the end of the article.

Find out why JinkoSolar Holding's -6.5% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: JinkoSolar Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is a fundamental valuation method that projects a company's future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s value to estimate its intrinsic worth. This approach is especially useful for companies like JinkoSolar Holding, where future cash generation drives value more than short-term earnings.

For JinkoSolar, the latest trailing twelve months Free Cash Flow (FCF) is approximately CN¥5.04 billion. Analyst estimates suggest annual growth rates tapering from nearly 14% to below 4% over the next decade. By 2035, projected FCF is around CN¥9.53 billion, with all figures presented in Chinese Yuan to match the company’s financial reporting.

After discounting these expected cash flows using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity method, JinkoSolar’s intrinsic value is calculated at $177.99 per share. This value implies the stock is currently trading at an 86.1% discount to its estimated fair value, making it appear deeply undervalued at present prices.

DCF models rely on projections and the quality of assumptions. Based on these estimates, JinkoSolar appears attractively priced for long-term investors.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests JinkoSolar Holding is undervalued by 86.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 844 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for JinkoSolar Holding.

Approach 2: JinkoSolar Holding Price vs Sales

The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a widely used valuation metric, especially relevant for companies where sales are robust but profitability can be volatile. For profitable firms in fast-moving industries like semiconductors, the P/S ratio allows investors to assess value independently of accounting variations in earnings. This makes it a preferred choice when growth trends and revenue scale drive the investment story.

Growth expectations and company-specific risks play a major role in determining what a “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio should be. Higher anticipated revenue growth or lower business risk typically command a higher P/S, while firms facing slower growth or higher uncertainty warrant a lower multiple. Comparing JinkoSolar’s current P/S ratio of 0.11x to the industry average of 4.94x and the peer average of 1.94x reveals a marked discount. At first glance, this could indicate a significant undervaluation, but context matters.

To address that context, we look to Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio. This metric estimates the most appropriate P/S ratio by factoring in not just industry norms and peer comparisons, but also JinkoSolar’s growth outlook, profit margin, market capitalization, and risk profile. In JinkoSolar’s case, the Fair Ratio stands at 1.36x, which is far above the company’s actual P/S. Since the stock trades at a much lower multiple than the fair value suggested by these key adjustments, the takeaway is clear: JinkoSolar remains meaningfully undervalued on a sales basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1410 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your JinkoSolar Holding Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. Rather than relying purely on numbers, Narratives capture the story you believe about a company and directly link that story to forecasts for sales, earnings, and ultimately fair value.

A Narrative is a clear, user-driven explanation of what you expect will drive JinkoSolar’s future by tying together assumptions about market trends, profitability, and company strategy with your own estimates for growth and risk. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use this feature to summarize their view on a company's prospects. Each Narrative is backed up by dynamic financial models that instantly update when new facts emerge, such as earnings or industry news.

This means your Narrative is not static or theoretical; it evolves in real time and helps you stay focused on what matters most for your decision-making. Comparing the derived Fair Value from your Narrative to JinkoSolar’s actual share price shows you at a glance when the stock may be undervalued or overvalued according to your outlook.

For example, some investors are optimistic and see JinkoSolar’s fair value as high as $66.10 due to growth in storage systems and efficiency gains. Others, more cautious about policy risks and margin pressures, have it as low as $17.00. Narratives make these perspectives transparent, enabling you to act with confidence or reconsider as new information arrives.

Do you think there's more to the story for JinkoSolar Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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