Despite shrinking by US$433m in the past week, SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) shareholders are still up 294% over 5 years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 24, 2022
NasdaqGS:SPWR
Source: Shutterstock

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last month. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 158% in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 38% decline over the last twelve months.

Although SunPower has shed US$433m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

View our latest analysis for SunPower

SunPower wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over the last half decade SunPower's revenue has actually been trending down at about 18% per year. Given that scenario, we wouldn't have expected the share price to rise 21% per year, but that's what it did. It's a good reminder that expectations about the future, not the past history, always impact share prices. Still, this situation makes us a little wary of the stock.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:SPWR Earnings and Revenue Growth April 24th 2022

This free interactive report on SunPower's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between SunPower's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. SunPower hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 294% exceeds its share price return of 158%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that SunPower shareholders are down 38% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.6%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 32%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand SunPower better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that SunPower is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Of course SunPower may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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