First Solar (FSLR): Evaluating Valuation After Major US Manufacturing Expansion and $1.1 Billion Louisiana Facility Opening

First Solar has just brought its new vertically integrated manufacturing facility online in Iberia Parish, Louisiana, marking a significant step in expanding its American solar production capacity. The $1.1 billion investment signals both growth and new job creation.

See our latest analysis for First Solar.

It has been a significant year for First Solar’s stock, with momentum picking up alongside these major expansion milestones. The company has recorded a 45.98% share price return year-to-date, and its total shareholder return for the past year stands at 41.36%, reflecting growing optimism around its ability to scale US-based manufacturing and capitalize on domestic energy trends.

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But with First Solar’s new facilities ramping up and the share price reaching historic highs, the big question is whether value remains for investors or if the market has already priced in the company’s future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

With First Solar closing at $272.21 and the widely followed narrative putting fair value at $269.64, the difference is minimal. This signals a market in close alignment with current earnings growth and sector expectations.

First Solar continues to innovate in proprietary thin-film technology (CuRe, perovskite development). This has shown performance improvements and positions the company for long-term technological leadership as solar efficiency and durability gain importance. This supports sustained pricing power, margin protection, and potential upside to future earnings as these technologies are commercialized.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how bold growth projections and powerful technology bets shape this valuation? The narrative reveals aggressive margin forecasts and future earnings numbers that could shift the story. Click to uncover the key financial bets driving this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $269.64 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing tariff uncertainty and persistent high interest rates could present challenges to First Solar’s growth story and test the bullish case in the months ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this First Solar narrative.

Another View: A Second Method for Estimating Value

Looking from another angle, our DCF model suggests a markedly different picture than the market's pricing. According to the SWS DCF model, First Solar looks undervalued by a substantial margin, with an estimated fair value near $486, which is well above current levels. Could the market be missing something, or is this just the optimism of a longer-term view?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own First Solar Narrative

If the current story does not match your perspective, or you’d rather draw your own conclusions, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your First Solar research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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