TJX (TJX) Valuation Check After Quarterly Sales Growth and New Store & E‑Commerce Expansion Plans

TJX Companies (TJX) just posted another quarter of sales growth while laying out multi billion dollar plans to upgrade stores, distribution, and e commerce. This combination helps explain the stock’s steady climb.

See our latest analysis for TJX Companies.

That growth story seems to be resonating with investors, with the share price now around $153.28 after a roughly 26.5% year to date share price return and a powerful three year total shareholder return of about 105 percent, helped by steady buybacks and upbeat initiatives such as the Maxxinista Express campaign.

If TJX’s momentum has you rethinking your retail exposure, this is also a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potentially compelling ideas on your radar.

But after such a strong run and only a modest gap to Wall Street’s price target, is TJX still a mispriced compounder hiding in plain sight, or has the market already baked in the next leg of off price growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.7% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting modestly above TJX’s last close, the story leans toward upside while assuming its off price engine keeps compounding.

The Fair Value Estimate has increased from $151.84 to $159.16 per share, reflecting a moderate reassessment upward.

The Revenue Growth Projection is up, increasing from 5.51% to 5.71%, while the Net Profit Margin Estimate saw a modest uptick from 9.25% to 9.34%, and the forecast for the future Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio increased from 33.1x to 35.3x.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what supports richer profitability, higher sales, and an even steeper earnings multiple all at once, without any tech like growth? The full narrative unpacks the assumptions behind that upgraded fair value, step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $159.16 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upbeat narrative could falter if e commerce siphons more traffic from stores or if brands tighten inventory, which could squeeze TJX’s merchandise pipeline and margins.

Find out about the key risks to this TJX Companies narrative.

Another View: Richer Multiples, Different Message

Step back from narrative fair value and TJX looks pricey on earnings. Its price to earnings ratio of 33.3x sits well above the US Specialty Retail average of 18.8x and a fair ratio of 22x. This suggests investors are paying up for quality, but it also raises the question of how much cushion is really left if growth cools.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own TJX Companies Narrative

If the story here does not quite fit your view, dig into the numbers yourself and build a fresh narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TJX Companies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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