Are CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for CarMax

What’s the value?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$550 US$620 US$731 US$821 US$898 US$965 US$1.0k US$1.1k US$1.1k US$1.2k
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Est @ 12.31% Est @ 9.43% Est @ 7.42% Est @ 6.01% Est @ 5.03% Est @ 4.34% Est @ 3.86%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11.19% US$494 US$502 US$532 US$537 US$529 US$511 US$487 US$460 US$432 US$403

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $4.89b

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11.2%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.2b × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (11.2% – 2.7%) = US$14b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$14b ÷ ( 1 + 11.2%)10 = $4.89b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $9.78b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of $58.84. Relative to the current share price of $77, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

NYSE:KMX Intrinsic value, April 22nd 2019
NYSE:KMX Intrinsic value, April 22nd 2019

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at CarMax as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 11.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.42. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For CarMax, I’ve put together three pertinent factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does KMX have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does KMX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of KMX? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.