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GES

Guess' NYSE:GES Stock Report

Last Price

US$19.25

Market Cap

US$1.0b

7D

3.7%

1Y

-16.7%

Updated

09 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
GES fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health3/6
Dividends4/6

GES Stock Overview

Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children.

Guess' Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Guess'
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$19.25
52 Week HighUS$25.27
52 Week LowUS$16.05
Beta1.9
1 Month Change8.33%
3 Month Change-2.04%
1 Year Change-16.67%
3 Year Change24.68%
5 Year Change49.57%
Change since IPO113.89%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 03
These 4 Measures Indicate That Guess' (NYSE:GES) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

These 4 Measures Indicate That Guess' (NYSE:GES) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Jun 19
Do Guess''s (NYSE:GES) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Do Guess''s (NYSE:GES) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...

Jun 02

Guess? Is On Sale

Guess? has seen its financial performance improve recently, especially compared to the bottom caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Shares are also trading on the cheap right now, even though they are priced at a level that is comparable to similar firms. The company could be subject to volatility moving forward, but the overall situation is favorable right now.

Shareholder Returns

GESUS Specialty RetailUS Market
7D3.7%2.8%0.3%
1Y-16.7%-34.0%-13.5%

Return vs Industry: GES exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -29.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GES underperformed the US Market which returned -13% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GES's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GES volatility
GES Average Weekly Movement8.3%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement8.9%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: GES is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GES's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
198112,500Carlos Alberinihttps://www.guess.com

Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company’s clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel.

Guess' Fundamentals Summary

How do Guess''s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GES fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.05b
Earnings (TTM)US$165.57m
Revenue (TTM)US$2.67b

6.3x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GES income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$2.67b
Cost of RevenueUS$1.48b
Gross ProfitUS$1.19b
Other ExpensesUS$1.02b
EarningsUS$165.57m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)3.04
Gross Margin44.57%
Net Profit Margin6.21%
Debt/Equity Ratio92.0%

How did GES perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.7%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GES undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GES?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GES key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.8x
PEG Ratio0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GES's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GES PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for GES vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.1x
DBI Designer Brands
7x1.9%US$1.1b
CAL Caleres
5.8x0.5%US$1.0b
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch
4.4x-19.8%US$906.5m
GCO Genesco
7.4xn/aUS$816.0m
GES Guess'
6.3x18.9%US$1.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GES is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GES's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.6x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GES's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GES PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.3x
Fair PE Ratio13.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GES when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GES ($19.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($57.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GES is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Guess' forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


18.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GES's forecast earnings growth (18.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: GES's earnings (18.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GES's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GES's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GES's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if GES's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Guess' performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


42.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GES has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GES's current net profit margins (6.2%) are higher than last year (4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GES's earnings have grown significantly by 42.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GES's earnings growth over the past year (91.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (42.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GES earnings growth over the past year (91.9%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 30.2%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GES's Return on Equity (40.3%) is considered outstanding.


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Financial Health

How is Guess''s financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GES's short term assets ($1.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($758.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: GES's short term assets ($1.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GES's net debt to equity ratio (58.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GES's debt to equity ratio has increased from 2.3% to 92% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GES's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (32.2%).

Interest Coverage: GES's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (16.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Guess' current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


4.68%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GES's dividend (4.68%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.52%).

High Dividend: GES's dividend (4.68%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.08%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GES's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GES's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (25.8%), GES's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (102.9%), GES's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Carlos Alberini (66 yo)

3.5yrs

Tenure

US$15,729,716

Compensation

Mr. Carlos E. Alberini has been the Chief Executive Officer at Guess?, Inc. since February 20, 2019 and has been its Director since February 02, 2019. Mr. Alberini served as the Chairman and Chief Executiv...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Carlos's total compensation ($USD15.73M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.91M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Carlos's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GES's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GES's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 17.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Guess', Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Guess', Inc.
  • Ticker: GES
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1981
  • Industry: Apparel Retail
  • Sector: Retail
  • Implied Market Cap: US$1.048b
  • Shares outstanding: 54.44m
  • Website: https://www.guess.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Guess', Inc.
  • 1444 South Alameda Street
  • Los Angeles
  • California
  • 90021
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/09 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/09 00:00
Earnings2022/04/30
Annual Earnings2022/01/29


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.