Genesco (NYSE:GCO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of GCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GCO ($61.57) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($29.78)

GCO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

GCO Stock Overview

Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (7.6x) is below the US market (15.6x)

Earnings have grown 6.4% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for GCO from our risk checks.

Genesco Competitors

Abercrombie & Fitch

NYSE:ANF

US$949.4m

Caleres

NYSE:CAL

US$1.1b

Chico's FAS

NYSE:CHS

US$782.1m

Children's Place

NasdaqGS:PLCE

US$628.1m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Genesco
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$61.57
52 Week High	US$73.72
52 Week Low	US$48.54
Beta	1.86
1 Month Change	22.80%
3 Month Change	5.10%
1 Year Change	1.45%
3 Year Change	88.12%
5 Year Change	130.17%
Change since IPO	734.85%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 01

Does Genesco (NYSE:GCO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...

Jun 13

These 4 Measures Indicate That Genesco (NYSE:GCO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

May 31

What Does Genesco Inc.'s (NYSE:GCO) Share Price Indicate?

Genesco Inc. ( NYSE:GCO ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on...

Shareholder Returns

	GCO	US Specialty Retail	US Market
7D	4.6%	2.7%	1.2%
1Y	1.5%	-31.8%	-11.6%

Return vs Industry: GCO exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -34% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GCO exceeded the US Market which returned -13.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GCO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GCO volatility
GCO Average Weekly Movement	7.5%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: GCO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GCO's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1924	11,700	Mimi Vaughn	https://genesco.com

Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children.

Genesco Fundamentals Summary

How do Genesco's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GCO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$845.28m
Earnings (TTM)	US$111.02m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.40b

7.6x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is GCO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GCO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.40b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.23b
Gross Profit	US$1.17b
Other Expenses	US$1.06b
Earnings	US$111.02m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	8.09
Gross Margin	48.87%
Net Profit Margin	4.62%
Debt/Equity Ratio	2.5%

How did GCO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GCO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GCO. This is calculated by dividing GCO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GCO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$845.28m

GCO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GCO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for GCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.8x
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch	4.6x	-19.8%	US$949.4m
CAL Caleres	6x	0.5%	US$1.1b
CHS Chico's FAS	8.7x	n/a	US$782.1m
PLCE Children's Place	3.9x	-9.9%	US$628.1m
GCO Genesco	7.6x	n/a	US$845.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (5.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.6x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GCO's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GCO ($61.57) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($29.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Genesco forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

3.3%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if GCO's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if GCO's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if GCO's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GCO's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GCO's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GCO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Genesco performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

6.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GCO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GCO's current net profit margins (4.6%) are higher than last year (4.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GCO's earnings have grown by 6.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GCO's earnings growth over the past year (29.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (6.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GCO earnings growth over the past year (29.2%) underperformed the Specialty Retail industry 30.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: GCO's Return on Equity (18.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Genesco's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GCO's short term assets ($725.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($464.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: GCO's short term assets ($725.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($483.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GCO has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: GCO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 15.2% to 2.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GCO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (704.3%).

Interest Coverage: GCO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (69.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Genesco current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GCO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GCO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GCO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GCO's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as GCO has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mimi Vaughn (55 yo)

2.5yrs

Tenure

US$8,766,458

Compensation

Ms. Mimi Eckel Vaughn has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Genesco Inc. since February 02, 2020 and served as its Interim Chief Financial Officer since November 27, 2020 until December 14, 202...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mimi's total compensation ($USD8.77M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.93M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mimi's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GCO's management team is considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: GCO's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2022/01/29