Dillard’s Inc (NYSE:DDS), which is in the multiline retail business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to $93.05 at one point, and dropping to the lows of $68.26. This high level of volatility gives investors the opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at an artificially low price. A question to answer is whether Dillard’s’s current trading price of $69.75 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Dillard’s’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Dillard’s still cheap?The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. I’ve used the price-to-equity ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 7.87x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 12.64x, which means if you buy Dillard’s today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Dillard’s should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. In addition to this, it seems like Dillard’s’s share price is quite stable, which could mean there may be less chances to buy low in the future now that it’s fairly valued. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.
What does the future of Dillard’s look like?Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected next year, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Dillard’s, at least in the near future.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? DDS seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on DDS, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on DDS for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on DDS should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Dillard’s. You can find everything you need to know about Dillard’s in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Dillard’s, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.