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BURL

Burlington Stores NYSE:BURL Stock Report

Last Price

US$168.99

Market Cap

US$11.1b

7D

3.0%

1Y

-51.6%

Updated

18 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
BURL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation0/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

BURL Stock Overview

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States.

Burlington Stores Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Burlington Stores
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$168.99
52 Week HighUS$352.19
52 Week LowUS$133.28
Beta0.84
1 Month Change14.58%
3 Month Change12.13%
1 Year Change-51.56%
3 Year Change-4.72%
5 Year Change96.25%
Change since IPO575.69%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 19
Is It Time To Consider Buying Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL)?

Is It Time To Consider Buying Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL)?

Let's talk about the popular Burlington Stores, Inc. ( NYSE:BURL ). The company's shares received a lot of attention...

Aug 01
These 4 Measures Indicate That Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

These 4 Measures Indicate That Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Jul 29

Burlington Stores: Overvalued During A Recession

Burlington has grown store count by 38% in five years and the financials have followed suit. To expand, the business has used debt and now is highly leveraged at 8x debt-to-equity. With a recession and high inflation, this retailer has many headwinds ahead along with high debt load, therefore, at 22x earnings, I am not interested. Introduction Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is a retailer that has had a great growth story over the past few years. The business has increased its store count by 38% since 2017, and revenue has followed. But with a recession and high inflation, retailers could see a strong downturn. With the debt load Burlington has, any sale decreases could be hard. Therefore, at 22x earnings. I am staying away from the stock. Financial History Burlington Stores Revenue (SEC.gov) Burlington Stores Store Count (SEC.com) As can be seen above, Burlington has been able to grow revenue every year except for 2020. Over the past five years, the company has posted a CAGR of 8.85%. This is due to the aggressive opening of stores in the past five years. The total store count has increased by 211 locations and grew by a total of 34%. This store growth is the basis of the increasing revenues since 2017. Looking at the past two years shows Burlington's rebound from the pandemic. The retailer had to close almost all stores for extended periods in 2020, thus depressing revenue. The decline in 2020 was sharp, with revenue down 21%, but the following year revenue bounced back by 62% from 2020 lows. Burlington refused to let the pandemic slow store openings and increased store count by 10% during a poor-performing year. Burlington Stores Operating & Net Income (SEC.gov) Burlington Stores Costs (SEC.gov) Burlington Stores Comparable Store Sales (SEC.gov) But opening a bunch of stores doesn't guarantee more profits. Existing and new stores must see growing sales, too. And looking at the comparable store sales figures shows the company has generated sales growth at old and new locations. From 2017 to 2019, the company posted around 3% comparable store sales each year. In 2020 this data couldn't be calculated due to store closures, but in 2021 comparable store sales were up 15%. What this year-to-year comparable store sales growth shows is that the new and old stores are seeing sales growth. With growing revenue and comparable store sales growth, why isn't operating and net income following suit? Well, the bottom line was growing before the pandemic. From 2017 to 2019, operating and net income posted clips of 10.64% and 6.5% each. But since costs seem to have increased for the company. In 2020 the costs of overhead during closure periods damped the year and created an operating loss. But in 2021, gross margin was higher, and SG&A expenses as a percent of revenue were down. What caused a jump in costs is a one-time cost to extinguish debt of $156 million. Looking at adjusted net income shows the company would have netted around $500 million in earnings with this cost. Q1 2022 While 2021 saw a rebound from the pandemic, the ensuing stimulus the government provided is dampening 2022's results. Year-to-year revenue was down 12% from the first quarter of 2021. The government stimulus checks helped boost revenue last year, thus making a bad comparison. In fact, comparable store sales for the quarter were down 18%. Inventory issues also caused pressure on revenue this quarter. Supply chain issues also increased the costs this quarter, with total costs as a percent of revenue growing by 2.3%. This mix caused operating and net income to be down 90% each. Burlington continues the store growth pattern, opening another 33 stores this quarter. This was a bad quarter for the company due to the various supply chain issue and comparable factors. I would expect to see the second quarter have lower comparable results due to stimulus run-off, as the last payment was in March of 2021. Balance Sheet

Jun 25
Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...

Shareholder Returns

BURLUS Specialty RetailUS Market
7D3.0%3.8%1.4%
1Y-51.6%-25.9%-8.4%

Return vs Industry: BURL underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -25.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BURL underperformed the US Market which returned -9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BURL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BURL volatility
BURL Average Weekly Movement9.4%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement8.8%
Market Average Movement7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: BURL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BURL's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
197238,599Michael O'Sullivanhttps://www.burlingtoninvestors.com

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby, home, and beauty products. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 stores under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 store under the MJM Designer Shoes name in 45 states and Puerto Rico.

Burlington Stores Fundamentals Summary

How do Burlington Stores's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BURL fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$11.10b
Earnings (TTM)US$253.98m
Revenue (TTM)US$9.04b

43.7x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BURL income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$9.04b
Cost of RevenueUS$5.33b
Gross ProfitUS$3.71b
Other ExpensesUS$3.46b
EarningsUS$253.98m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 25, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)3.87
Gross Margin41.06%
Net Profit Margin2.81%
Debt/Equity Ratio202.0%

How did BURL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BURL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BURL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BURL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.8x
PEG Ratio2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BURL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BURL PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for BURL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.2x
ROST Ross Stores
20.3x10.6%US$32.2b
VSCO Victoria's Secret
6.3x5.9%US$3.5b
FL Foot Locker
3.7x-5.8%US$3.0b
AEO American Eagle Outfitters
6.5x6.2%US$2.3b
BURL Burlington Stores
43.7x15.3%US$11.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.7x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BURL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.7x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.9x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BURL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BURL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio43.7x
Fair PE Ratio18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BURL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BURL ($168.99) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($34.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BURL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Burlington Stores forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


15.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BURL's forecast earnings growth (15.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: BURL's earnings (15.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BURL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BURL's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BURL's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BURL's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (58.2%).


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Past Performance

How has Burlington Stores performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-8.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BURL has a large one-off loss of $202.8M impacting its April 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BURL's current net profit margins (2.8%) are lower than last year (4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BURL's earnings have declined by 8.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BURL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BURL had negative earnings growth (-10.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Specialty Retail industry average (29.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst BURL's Return on Equity (35.46%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Burlington Stores's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BURL's short term assets ($2.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: BURL's short term assets ($2.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($4.5B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BURL's net debt to equity ratio (114.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: BURL had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: BURL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (30.2%).

Interest Coverage: BURL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Burlington Stores's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


0.46%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BURL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BURL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BURL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BURL's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BURL has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Michael O'Sullivan (58 yo)

0.083yr

Tenure

US$13,867,435

Compensation

Mr. Michael B. O'Sullivan serves as the Chief Executive Officer and a Director at Burlington Stores, Inc. since September 16, 2019. He served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Ross Stores Inc...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Michael's total compensation ($USD13.87M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Michael's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BURL's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: BURL's board of directors are considered experienced (6.2 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Burlington Stores, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Burlington Stores, Inc.
  • Ticker: BURL
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1972
  • Industry: Apparel Retail
  • Sector: Retail
  • Implied Market Cap: US$11.103b
  • Shares outstanding: 65.70m
  • Website: https://www.burlingtoninvestors.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Burlington Stores, Inc.
  • 2006 Route 130 North
  • Burlington
  • New Jersey
  • 8016
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings2022/04/30
Annual Earnings2022/01/29


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.