BARK, Inc. (NYSE:BARK) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$2.33 Price Target

Shareholders might have noticed that BARK, Inc. (NYSE:BARK) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.4% to US$0.79 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 38% toUS$0.042 per share. Revenues of US$103m did beat expectations by 3.2%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from BARK's three analysts is for revenues of US$412.7m in 2026, which would reflect a chunky 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 20% to US$0.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$426.1m and losses of US$0.13 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on BARK after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

View our latest analysis for BARK

The average price target fell 22% to US$2.33, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for BARK's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BARK, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 16% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BARK is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of BARK's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for BARK going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for BARK you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.