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Advance Auto Parts

NYSE:AAP
Snowflake Description

Flawless balance sheet with limited growth.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
AAP
NYSE
$11B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Retail
Company description

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The last earnings update was 61 days ago. More info.


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AAP Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-0%
NYSE:AAP
-2.5%
US Specialty Retail
-1.2%
US Market
1 Year Returns
9.8%
NYSE:AAP
2.5%
US Specialty Retail
3.3%
US Market
AAP Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) -0% 3.7% -7.9% 9.8% -4.7% 27.6%
US Specialty Retail -2.5% 1.9% -3.7% 2.5% 24% 52.3%
US Market -1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 3.3% 35.9% 41.7%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • AAP outperformed the Specialty Retail industry which returned 2.5% over the past year.
  • AAP outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 3.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
AAP
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

Value

 Is Advance Auto Parts undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Advance Auto Parts to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Advance Auto Parts.

NYSE:AAP Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:AAP
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Specialty Retail Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.83
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.829 (1 + (1- 21%) (28.68%))
1.011
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.01
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.011 * 5.96%)
8.76%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:AAP using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Advance Auto Parts is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:AAP DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.76%)
2020 749.15 Analyst x6 688.84
2021 890.90 Analyst x1 753.22
2022 966.96 Est @ 8.54% 751.71
2023 1,032.67 Est @ 6.8% 738.16
2024 1,090.25 Est @ 5.58% 716.57
2025 1,141.73 Est @ 4.72% 689.99
2026 1,188.82 Est @ 4.12% 660.61
2027 1,232.87 Est @ 3.71% 629.94
2028 1,274.95 Est @ 3.41% 598.99
2029 1,315.86 Est @ 3.21% 568.44
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $6,796.47
NYSE:AAP DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $1,315.86 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (8.76% – 2.73%)
$22,432.99
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $22,432.99 ÷ (1 + 8.76%)10
$9,690.82
NYSE:AAP Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $6,796.47 + $9,690.82
$16,487.29
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $16,487.29 / 71.33
$231.15
NYSE:AAP Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $231.15
Current discount Discount to share price of $158.90
= -1 x ($158.90 - $231.15) / $231.15
31.3%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Advance Auto Parts is available for.
Intrinsic value
31%
Share price is $158.9 vs Future cash flow value of $231.15
Current Discount Checks
For Advance Auto Parts to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Advance Auto Parts's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Advance Auto Parts's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Advance Auto Parts's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Advance Auto Parts's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-04-20) in USD $5.87
NYSE:AAP Share Price ** NYSE (2019-07-22) in USD $158.9
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 62 Publicly-Listed Specialty Retail Companies 14.67x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,082 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.86x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Advance Auto Parts.

NYSE:AAP PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:AAP Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 158.9 ÷ 5.87

27.07x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advance Auto Parts is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average.
  • Advance Auto Parts is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Advance Auto Parts's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 27.07x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 22 Analysts
18.8%per year
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 55 Publicly-Listed Specialty Retail Companies 1.71x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,119 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.57x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:AAP PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 27.07x ÷ 18.8%

1.44x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advance Auto Parts is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Advance Auto Parts's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-04-20) in USD $49.73
NYSE:AAP Share Price * NYSE (2019-07-22) in USD $158.9
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 99 Publicly-Listed Specialty Retail Companies 1.32x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,248 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.79x
NYSE:AAP PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:AAP Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 158.9 ÷ 49.73

3.2x

* Primary Listing of Advance Auto Parts.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advance Auto Parts is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Specialty Retail industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Specialty Retail industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Advance Auto Parts expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
18.8%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Advance Auto Parts expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Advance Auto Parts's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Advance Auto Parts's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • Advance Auto Parts's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:AAP Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 22 Analysts 18.8%
NYSE:AAP Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 22 Analysts 2.7%
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 9.9%
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5.4%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 14%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:AAP Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 10,373 1,164 753 3
2020-12-31 10,023 1,055 627 21
2019-12-31 9,768 972 528 22
NYSE:AAP Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-04-20 9,659 862 430
2018-12-29 9,581 811 424
2018-10-06 9,512 881 555
2018-07-14 9,420 777 535
2018-04-21 9,357 720 504
2017-12-30 9,374 601 476
2017-10-07 9,420 497 353
2017-07-15 9,486 582 371
2017-04-22 9,479 470 409
2016-12-31 9,568 523 460
2016-10-08 9,518 597 452
2016-07-16 9,565 567 458
2016-04-23 9,679 676 483

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Advance Auto Parts's earnings are expected to grow by 18.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Advance Auto Parts's revenue is expected to grow by 2.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Advance Auto Parts Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:AAP Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 10.72 10.92 10.51 2.00
2020-12-31 9.08 9.59 8.05 7.00
2019-12-31 7.37 8.12 6.70 6.00
NYSE:AAP Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-04-20 5.87
2018-12-29 5.75
2018-10-06 7.50
2018-07-14 7.24
2018-04-21 6.82
2017-12-30 6.44
2017-10-07 4.79
2017-07-15 5.03
2017-04-22 5.55
2016-12-31 6.25
2016-10-08 6.15
2016-07-16 6.25
2016-04-23 6.59

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Advance Auto Parts is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Advance Auto Parts performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Advance Auto Parts's growth in the last year to its industry (Specialty Retail).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Advance Auto Parts's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.
  • Advance Auto Parts's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Advance Auto Parts's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Advance Auto Parts's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Advance Auto Parts Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:AAP Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-04-20 9,658.74 429.62 3,498.82
2018-12-29 9,580.55 423.85 3,475.99
2018-10-06 9,512.47 554.91 3,459.53
2018-07-14 9,419.72 535.06 3,420.49
2018-04-21 9,356.79 504.27 3,374.27
2017-12-30 9,373.78 475.51 3,392.33
2017-10-07 9,419.69 353.37 3,458.91
2017-07-15 9,486.31 371.22 3,453.31
2017-04-22 9,478.74 408.77 3,423.20
2016-12-31 9,567.68 459.62 3,465.52
2016-10-08 9,518.33 451.93 3,313.30
2016-07-16 9,564.68 458.13 3,353.24
2016-04-23 9,678.56 482.98 3,365.43
2016-01-02 9,737.02 473.40 3,585.99
2015-10-10 9,940.68 501.24 3,475.43
2015-07-18 9,934.94 502.98 3,484.46
2015-04-25 9,912.60 492.56 3,495.10
2015-01-03 9,843.86 492.27 3,465.15
2014-10-04 9,015.47 457.27 3,270.68
2014-07-12 8,246.15 439.08 3,038.31
2014-04-19 7,448.01 416.64 2,825.14
2013-12-28 6,493.81 390.86 2,558.84
2013-10-05 6,414.20 406.65 2,503.88
2013-07-13 6,351.59 392.35 2,513.63
2013-04-20 6,263.02 375.12 2,487.05
2012-12-29 6,205.00 386.80 2,440.72
2012-10-06 6,203.37 388.16 2,429.58

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Advance Auto Parts has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Advance Auto Parts used its assets less efficiently than the US Specialty Retail industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Advance Auto Parts's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Specialty Retail industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Advance Auto Parts's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Advance Auto Parts's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Advance Auto Parts is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Advance Auto Parts's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Advance Auto Parts's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 7.7x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Advance Auto Parts Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

NYSE:AAP Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-04-20 3,547.22 746.83 537.33
2018-12-29 3,550.81 1,045.93 896.53
2018-10-06 3,659.64 1,045.61 970.01
2018-07-14 3,657.95 1,045.26 902.25
2018-04-21 3,546.62 1,044.93 639.14
2017-12-30 3,415.20 1,044.68 546.94
2017-10-07 3,230.79 1,044.36 363.30
2017-07-15 3,128.28 1,044.11 257.23
2017-04-22 3,023.68 1,073.89 126.09
2016-12-31 2,916.19 1,043.26 135.18
2016-10-08 2,855.72 1,043.01 119.49
2016-07-16 2,748.90 1,170.11 104.83
2016-04-23 2,629.14 1,230.49 103.71
2016-01-02 2,460.65 1,225.48 90.78
2015-10-10 2,413.08 1,293.70 105.35
2015-07-18 2,289.13 1,453.64 114.54
2015-04-25 2,146.59 1,610.27 123.82
2015-01-03 2,002.91 1,658.91 104.67
2014-10-04 1,925.50 1,735.73 89.66
2014-07-12 1,814.53 1,868.49 67.45
2014-04-19 1,666.63 2,072.61 83.36
2013-12-28 1,516.21 1,059.38 1,112.47
2013-10-05 1,467.85 605.06 567.30
2013-07-13 1,368.98 605.00 520.97
2013-04-20 1,270.45 604.95 407.72
2012-12-29 1,210.69 613.81 598.11
2012-10-06 1,147.48 600.25 479.38
  • Advance Auto Parts's level of debt (21.1%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (123.8% vs 21.1% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (115.4%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 13.4x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Advance Auto Parts's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0.15%
Current annual income from Advance Auto Parts dividends. Estimated to be 0.15% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Advance Auto Parts shares you are expected to receive $3 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Advance Auto Parts's pays a lower dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.44%).
  • Advance Auto Parts's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.78%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:AAP Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Specialty Retail Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 40 Stocks 2.1%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2017 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.8%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:AAP Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 0.24 5.00
2020-12-31 0.25 9.00
2019-12-31 0.24 9.00
NYSE:AAP Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-05-22 0.240 0.154
2019-02-19 0.240 0.146
2018-11-13 0.240 0.146
2018-08-14 0.240 0.145
2018-05-22 0.240 0.175
2018-02-07 0.240 0.212
2017-11-14 0.240 0.230
2017-08-15 0.240 0.264
2017-05-24 0.240 0.209
2017-02-21 0.240 0.162
2016-11-15 0.240 0.142
2016-11-14 0.240 0.157
2016-08-25 0.240 0.163
2016-08-16 0.240 0.151
2016-05-31 0.240 0.149
2016-05-19 0.240 0.159
2016-03-01 0.240 0.154
2016-02-11 0.240 0.164
2015-11-17 0.240 0.159
2015-11-12 0.240 0.147
2015-08-25 0.240 0.130
2015-08-13 0.240 0.132
2015-06-02 0.240 0.145
2015-05-21 0.240 0.153
2014-11-06 0.240 0.158
2014-08-14 0.240 0.176
2014-05-28 0.240 0.188
2014-05-15 0.240 0.196
2013-10-31 0.240 0.209
2013-08-08 0.240 0.284
2013-05-23 0.240 0.291
2012-11-08 0.240 0.309
2012-08-09 0.240 0.341
2012-05-17 0.240 0.342
2012-02-16 0.240 0.273
2011-11-09 0.240 0.335
2011-08-10 0.240 0.397
2011-05-18 0.240 0.416
2011-02-09 0.240 0.367
2010-11-10 0.240 0.368
2010-08-11 0.240 0.409
2010-05-19 0.240 0.466
2010-02-17 0.240 0.555
2009-11-11 0.240 0.593
2009-08-12 0.240 0.605
2009-05-20 0.240 0.546
2009-02-18 0.240 0.596
2008-10-29 0.240 0.780
2008-08-06 0.240 0.666

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advance Auto Parts is not paying a notable dividend for United States of America, therefore no need to check if the payments are stable.
  • Advance Auto Parts is not paying a notable dividend for United States of America, therefore no need to check if the payments are increasing.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Advance Auto Parts's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Advance Auto Parts's dividends as it is not paying a notable one for United States of America.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Advance Auto Parts's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for United States of America.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Advance Auto Parts afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Advance Auto Parts's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Tom Greco
COMPENSATION $8,856,135
AGE 61
TENURE AS CEO 3.3 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Thomas R. Greco, also known as Tom, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. since April 11, 2016 and has been its President since August 14, 2016. Mr. Greco served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Frito-Lay North America, Inc. from September 2011 to March 30, 2016. Mr. Greco served as the President of Frito-Lay, Inc. since September 2011 until March 30, 2016 and served as its President of Sales since July 5, 2006. He served as an Executive Vice President of Pepsi Co. Inc. since September 2011 until September 2014. He served as the Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President of Pepsi Beverages Company at Pepsico, Inc. from February 2010 to September 14, 2011. He served as the President of Sales of PepsiCo since June 26, 2006 and served as its Executive Vice President of Sales - North America Beverages since August 2009 and Chief Customer Officer. He served as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer of North America Beverages (NAB), where he was responsible for leading NAB's commercial efforts across North America. He served as the Senior Vice President of Sales at Frito-Lay, Inc. He was responsible for the "Power of One" cross-divisional sales strategy. Mr. Greco, a PepsiCo executive with 20 years experience, as Senior Vice President of Sales at Frito-Lay North America. He was responsible for driving PepsiCo's successful "Power of One" cross-divisional sales strategy, leveraging the combined strengths and capabilities of all its businesses under a unified approach to customers. Since 2001, he served as Chief Customer Officer for Frito-Lay North America. Mr. Greco's extensive career with PepsiCo started in 1986 at Frito Lay Canada, where he held a variety of positions in sales and marketing and ultimately rose to become a Vice President. Prior to joining PepsiCo, Mr. Greco worked at Procter & Gamble. He served as Region Vice President in the Midwest of Frito-Lay's U.S. business and also served as President of Frito Lay Canada in 1999. Since 2003, he served as Senior Vice President of Sales for FLNA. He serves as a Director of the Grocery Manufacturers Association and the Dallas Stars Advisory Board. He has been a Director of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. since April 11, 2016. He served as a Director of G&K Services Inc. from July 10, 2014 to March 21, 2017. He is a dedicated supporter of many charitable organizations including the American Heart Association Heart Walk in Dallas and Raleigh, JDRF, Building Homes for Heroes and United Way. Mr. Greco holds an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business in London, Ontario and an Honors Bachelor of Commerce degree from the Laurentian University.

CEO Compensation
  • Tom's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year whilst earnings fell less than 20%.
  • Tom's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Advance Auto Parts management team in years:

2.1
Average Tenure
54
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Advance Auto Parts management team is about average.
Management Team

Tom Greco

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
61
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Jeff Shepherd

TITLE
Executive VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
46
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Bob Cushing

TITLE
Executive Vice President of Professional
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
65
TENURE
2.9 yrs

Reuben Slone

TITLE
Executive Vice President of Supply Chain
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
56
TENURE
0.8 yrs

Mike Broderick

TITLE
Executive VP of Merchandising & Store Operations Support
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
50
TENURE
2.1 yrs

Carlos Saladrigas

TITLE
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Regis HR
AGE
70

Andrew Page

TITLE
Senior VP
AGE
49
TENURE
0.2 yrs

- Donthi

TITLE
Executive VP & CTO
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Prabhakar Vaidyanathan

TITLE
VP of Finance & Investor Relations and Corporate Treasurer
TENURE
2.1 yrs

Tammy Finley

TITLE
Executive VP
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
52
TENURE
4.5 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Advance Auto Parts board of directors in years:

3.3
Average Tenure
59
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Advance Auto Parts board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Jeff Smith

TITLE
Independent Chairman
COMPENSATION
$340K
AGE
47
TENURE
3.2 yrs

Tom Greco

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
61
TENURE
3.3 yrs

John Bergstrom

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$255K
AGE
73
TENURE
11.2 yrs

John Ferraro

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$250K
AGE
63
TENURE
4.4 yrs

Brad Buss

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$260K
AGE
55
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Andi Karaboutis

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$240K
AGE
56
TENURE
4.4 yrs

Gene Lee

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$240K
AGE
57
TENURE
3.7 yrs

Doug Pertz

TITLE
COMPENSATION
$198K
AGE
65
TENURE
1.5 yrs

Nigel Travis

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$122K
AGE
69
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Jeff Jones

TITLE
Director
AGE
51
TENURE
0.4 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
19. Nov 18 Sell Fiona Dias Individual 16. Nov 18 16. Nov 18 -1,048 $177.54 $-186,066
17. Aug 18 Buy Nigel Travis Individual 17. Aug 18 17. Aug 18 1,250 $159.70 $199,625
X
Management checks
We assess Advance Auto Parts's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Advance Auto Parts has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

How Good Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) At Creating Shareholder Value?

The formula for calculating the return on capital employed is: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) Or for Advance Auto Parts: 0.11 = US$722m ÷ (US$11b - US$4.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2019.) So, Advance Auto Parts has an ROCE of 11%. … Do Advance Auto Parts's Current Liabilities Skew Its ROCE? … Due to the way ROCE is calculated, a high level of current liabilities makes a company look as though it has less capital employed, and thus can (sometimes unfairly) boost the ROCE.

Simply Wall St -

Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) CEO Salary Justified?

Check out our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts How Does Tom Greco's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies? … You can see, below, how CEO compensation at Advance Auto Parts has changed over time. … Given the total loss of 4.4% over three years, many shareholders in Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Simply Wall St -

Does Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Check out our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts What Is Advance Auto Parts's Net Debt? … NYSE:AAP Historical Debt, July 1st 2019 How Healthy Is Advance Auto Parts's Balance Sheet? … Since Advance Auto Parts does have net debt, we think it is worthwhile for shareholders to keep an eye on the balance sheet, over time.

Simply Wall St -

Is It Too Late To Buy Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) At Its June Price?

Advance Auto Parts is poised for significantly high earnings growth in the near future. … AAP is trading at price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.11x, which suggests that Advance Auto Parts is overvalued based on current earnings compared to the Specialty Retail industry average of 14.57x , and overvalued compared to the US market average ratio of 18x. … But, since Advance Auto Parts is a high-growth stock, we must also account for its earnings growth by using calculation called the PEG ratio.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Take Comfort From Insider Transactions At Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

As Peter Lynch said, 'insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.' View our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Advance Auto Parts In the last twelve months, the biggest single purchase by an insider was when Director Nigel Travis bought US$200k worth of shares at a price of US$160 per share. … NYSE:AAP Recent Insider Trading, June 10th 2019 Advance Auto Parts is not the only stock that insiders are buying. … Does Advance Auto Parts Boast High Insider Ownership?

Simply Wall St -

Is It Time To Consider Buying Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?

Let’s take a look at Advance Auto Parts’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change. … Great news for investors – Advance Auto Parts is still trading at a fairly cheap price. … Another thing to keep in mind is that Advance Auto Parts’s share price may be quite stable relative to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta.

Simply Wall St -

With A -11% Earnings Drop, Did Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Really Underperform?

When Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) announced its latest earnings (29 December 2018), I wanted to understand how these figures stacked up against its past performance. … The two benchmarks I used were Advance Auto Parts's average earnings over the past couple of years, and its industry performance. … See our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts Did AAP perform worse than its track record and industry?

Simply Wall St -

An Intrinsic Calculation For Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Suggests It's 28% Undervalued

We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. … A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $701.67 $743.13 $862.90 $933.21 $994.08 $1.05k $1.10k $1.14k $1.18k $1.22k Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.15% Est @ 6.52% Est @ 5.38% Est @ 4.59% Est @ 4.03% Est @ 3.64% Est @ 3.37% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.57% $646.30 $630.47 $674.32 $671.72 $659.07 $639.75 $616.31 $590.56 $563.76 $536.76 Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $6.23b "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.2b × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (8.6% – 2.7%) = US$21b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$21b ÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10 = $9.45b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $15.68b.

Simply Wall St -

Will Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Earnings Grow Over The Next Few Years?

Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card! … Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) most recent earnings update in December 2018

Simply Wall St -

An Intrinsic Calculation For Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Suggests It's 24% Undervalued

by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. … Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. … We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories, belts and hoses, brakes and brake pads, chassis and climate control parts, clutches and drive shafts, engines and engine parts, exhaust systems and parts, hub assemblies, ignition components and wires, radiators and cooling parts, starters and alternators, and steering and alignment parts. It also offers air conditioning chemicals and accessories, air fresheners, antifreeze and washer fluids, electrical wires and fuses, electronics, floor mats, seat covers, interior accessories, hand and specialty tools, lighting products, performance parts, sealants, adhesives and compounds, tire repair accessories, vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories, washes, waxes and cleaning supplies, and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters, fuel and oil additives, fuel filters, grease and lubricants, motor oils, oil filters, part cleaners and treatments, and transmission fluids for engine maintenance. Further, it offers battery and wiper installation, battery charging, engine light reading checking, electrical system testing, video clinic, oil and battery recycling, and loaner tool program services. Additionally, the company sells its products through its Website. It serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. As of December 29, 2018, the company operated 4,966 stores and 143 branches under the Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest, and Worldpac brand names in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and served 1,231 independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the British Virgin Islands, and the Pacific Islands. Advance Auto Parts, Inc. was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Details
Name: Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1929
$11,333,839,643
71,326,870
Website: http://www.advanceautoparts.com
Address: Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
2635 East Millbrook Road,
Raleigh,
North Carolina, 27604,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE AAP Common Shares New York Stock Exchange US USD 29. Nov 2001
DB AWN Common Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 29. Nov 2001
LSE 0H9G Common Shares London Stock Exchange GB USD 29. Nov 2001
BMV AAP * Common Shares Bolsa Mexicana de Valores MX MXN 29. Nov 2001
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
55,500
Advance Auto Parts employees.
Industry
Automotive Retail
Retail
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/07/22 23:31
End of day share price update: 2019/07/22 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/07/18
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/22
Last earnings reported: 2019/04/20
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/29


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.