ZUMZ Stock Overview
Zumiez Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$29.48|
|52 Week High||US$55.10|
|52 Week Low||US$24.02|
|1 Month Change||15.74%|
|3 Month Change||-13.83%|
|1 Year Change||-30.27%|
|3 Year Change||24.97%|
|5 Year Change||147.73%|
|Change since IPO||137.07%|
Recent News & Updates
Zumiez: Not Long Now Until We Have Our Long-Term Bottom
Zumiez shares this month attempting a long-term bottom, but momentum was rejected by its 10-week moving average. One forward estimates case their bearish trends, this stock should rally aggressively. We await a convincing swing low before we put capital to work. Intro We wrote about Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) back in April of this year when we foresaw more declines in the stock price. The reasoning for our bearishness at the time was the apparent falloff in growth in the company, which coincided with a valuation that was only in line with historic multiples (Not Cheap Enough For Us). Furthermore, the deteriorating technicals were signaling that the stock's 2019 highs would at least get tested in its down move at the time. As we can see from the long-term weekly chart below, however, even support at this level was not able to stop the selling. In fact, selling has intensified to the downside in recent months, resulting in shares of Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) now finding themselves just above the $26 handle. Zumiez Technical Chart (Stockcharts.com) Furthermore, as we can see above, Zumiez's 10-week moving average rejected the mid-July 2022 rally, which means shares still have not registered a weekly MACD crossover buy signal. When this takes place (given how oversold shares remain), we expect at least a rally up those 2019 highs (Previous support which now becomes resistance) once more. Whether shares will have enough momentum to punch through this level in time remains to be seen. Investors need to be patient, however, before a confirmed weekly swing (on strong volume) is confirmed here. We state this because getting our bottom may be a long-drawn-out process, especially when one views how forward-looking sales and revenues have been dropping in recent months. For the upcoming second quarter, for example, management guided between $232 & $239 million in top-line sales on the first quarter earnings call, but unless trends change here for the better, Zumiez's Q2 sales may even come in below management's guidance range released just eight weeks ago. Patient long-term investors eyeing up this name may not care in the slightest. Zumiez continues to report no debt on its balance sheet and is now selling a forward sales multiple of 0.47. The value is there for everyone to see, but the market remains uninterested due to how profitability has been getting hammered in recent times. Sluggish Sales Affecting Everything In the first quarter this year, for example, management cited the tapering off of the US stimulus this year as well as high inflation for the dropoff in sales in that period. Therefore, taking into account the dropoff in sales from the higher margin US segment as well as the higher cost of revenues (lower gross margin) & higher SG&A costs, operating profit barely came in profitable for the first quarter compared to $34+ million in EBIT in the same period of 12 months prior.
Why The 22% Return On Capital At Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) Should Have Your Attention
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An Intrinsic Calculation For Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued
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|ZUMZ||US Specialty Retail||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ZUMZ matched the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -30.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ZUMZ underperformed the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.
|ZUMZ Average Weekly Movement||7.9%|
|Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement||9.0%|
|Market Average Movement||7.7%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||16.9%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||3.2%|
Stable Share Price: ZUMZ is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ZUMZ's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Zumiez Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women. Its hardgoods include skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment. As of February 26, 2022, the company operated 738 stores, including 602 stores in the United States, 52 stores in Canada, 67 stores in Europe, and 17 stores in Australia under the names of Zumiez, Blue Tomato, and Fast Times.
Zumiez Fundamentals Summary
|ZUMZ fundamental statistics|
Is ZUMZ overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ZUMZ income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$697.45m|
Last Reported Earnings
Apr 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||4.75|
|Net Profit Margin||8.22%|
How did ZUMZ perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is ZUMZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ZUMZ?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is ZUMZ's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ZUMZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|ZUMZ PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
SCVL Shoe Carnival
PLCE Children's Place
CHS Chico's FAS
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ZUMZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (6.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ZUMZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ZUMZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.7x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ZUMZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||6.2x|
|Fair PE Ratio||8.1x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ZUMZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ZUMZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ZUMZ ($29.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.83)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ZUMZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.
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How is Zumiez forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?
Future Growth Score0/6
Future Growth Score 0/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZUMZ's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4% per year).
Earnings vs Market: ZUMZ's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ZUMZ's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ZUMZ's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ZUMZ's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ZUMZ's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.5%).
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How has Zumiez performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score3/6
Past Performance Score 3/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ZUMZ has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: ZUMZ's current net profit margins (8.2%) are lower than last year (10.9%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ZUMZ's earnings have grown significantly by 33.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: ZUMZ's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: ZUMZ had negative earnings growth (-24.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Specialty Retail industry average (30.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ZUMZ's Return on Equity (24.5%) is considered high.
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How is Zumiez's financial position?
Financial Health Score6/6
Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ZUMZ's short term assets ($348.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($178.3M).
Long Term Liabilities: ZUMZ's short term assets ($348.8M) exceed its long term liabilities ($212.9M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ZUMZ is debt free.
Reducing Debt: ZUMZ had no debt 5 years ago.
Debt Coverage: ZUMZ has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
Interest Coverage: ZUMZ has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
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What is Zumiez current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ZUMZ's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ZUMZ's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ZUMZ's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ZUMZ's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ZUMZ has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Rick Brooks (62 yo)
Mr. Richard M. Brooks, also known as Rick, Jr., has been the Chief Executive Officer of Zumiez Inc. since June 2000 and served as its Acting Chief Financial Officer from June 2011 to August 2011. Mr. Brook...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Rick's total compensation ($USD2.47M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.57M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Rick's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.
Experienced Management: ZUMZ's management team is seasoned and experienced (10 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: ZUMZ's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Zumiez Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Zumiez Inc.
- Ticker: ZUMZ
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1978
- Industry: Apparel Retail
- Sector: Retail
- Implied Market Cap: US$573.668m
- Shares outstanding: 19.46m
- Website: https://www.zumiez.com
Number of Employees
- Zumiez Inc.
- 4001 204th Street SW
- United States
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/08/12 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/08/12 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.