Stock Analysis

If You Had Bought Winmark (NASDAQ:WINA) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Earned 95% Returns

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NasdaqGM:WINA
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, long term Winmark Corporation (NASDAQ:WINA) shareholders have enjoyed a 95% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 71% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 7.0% , including dividends .

Check out our latest analysis for Winmark

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Winmark managed to grow its earnings per share at 12% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 14% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGM:WINA Earnings Per Share Growth November 25th 2020

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Winmark's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Winmark's TSR for the last 5 years was 102%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Winmark shareholders are up 7.0% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 15% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Winmark better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Winmark you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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