Tractor Supply (NasdaqGS:TSCO) - Share price, News & Analysis

TSCO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

TSCO Stock Overview

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 14.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 7.03% per year

Earnings have grown 19.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 1.77% is not well covered by earnings

Tractor Supply Competitors

Amazon.com

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US$1.1t

Home Depot

NYSE:HD

US$305.9b

Best Buy

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US$19.1b

Kingfisher

LSE:KGF

UK£5.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Tractor Supply
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$207.62
52 Week High	US$241.54
52 Week Low	US$170.82
Beta	1.03
1 Month Change	-9.03%
3 Month Change	-3.45%
1 Year Change	12.25%
3 Year Change	100.54%
5 Year Change	282.43%
Change since IPO	14,501.85%

Recent News & Updates

May 13

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Tractor Supply Company...

Shareholder Returns

	TSCO	US Specialty Retail	US Market
7D	4.8%	2.9%	2.7%
1Y	12.3%	-23.0%	-8.1%

Return vs Industry: TSCO exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -25.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TSCO exceeded the US Market which returned -10.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TSCO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TSCO volatility
TSCO Average Weekly Movement	5.3%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	8.4%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: TSCO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TSCO's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1938	34,000	Hal Lawton	https://www.tractorsupply.com

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer’s Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E.

Tractor Supply Fundamentals Summary

How do Tractor Supply's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TSCO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$23.00b
Earnings (TTM)	US$1.00b
Revenue (TTM)	US$12.96b

23.2x

P/E Ratio

1.8x

P/S Ratio

Is TSCO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TSCO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$12.96b
Cost of Revenue	US$8.41b
Gross Profit	US$4.55b
Other Expenses	US$3.55b
Earnings	US$1.00b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 26, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	8.96
Gross Margin	35.10%
Net Profit Margin	7.74%
Debt/Equity Ratio	55.1%

How did TSCO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.8%

Current Dividend Yield

28%

Payout Ratio

Does TSCO pay a reliable dividends?

See TSCO dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy TSCO by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Tractor Supply dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	May 24 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jun 08 2022
Days until Ex dividend	5 days
Days until Dividend pay date	20 days

Does TSCO pay a reliable dividends?

See TSCO dividend history and benchmarks

Valuation

Is Tractor Supply undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

14.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TSCO ($207.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($243.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSCO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TSCO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (23.2x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.5x).

PE vs Market: TSCO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (23.2x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TSCO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.3x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TSCO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (13x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.9x).

Future Growth

How is Tractor Supply forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 27 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

7.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TSCO's forecast earnings growth (7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TSCO's earnings (7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TSCO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TSCO's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TSCO's revenue (6.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TSCO's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (62.8%).

Past Performance

How has Tractor Supply performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

19.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TSCO has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TSCO's current net profit margins (7.7%) are higher than last year (7.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TSCO's earnings have grown by 19.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TSCO's earnings growth over the past year (18.6%) is below its 5-year average (19.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TSCO earnings growth over the past year (18.6%) underperformed the Specialty Retail industry 82.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: TSCO's Return on Equity (56%) is considered outstanding.

Financial Health

How is Tractor Supply's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TSCO's short term assets ($3.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($2.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: TSCO's short term assets ($3.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TSCO's net debt to equity ratio (32.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: TSCO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 42.9% to 55.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TSCO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (103.4%).

Interest Coverage: TSCO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (52.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Tractor Supply current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.77%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TSCO's dividend (1.77%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: TSCO's dividend (1.77%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.06%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TSCO's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TSCO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (28.2%), TSCO's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (108.2%), TSCO's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Retail industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Hal Lawton (47 yo)

2.33yrs

Tenure

US$11,117,251

Compensation

Mr. Harry A. Lawton, III, also known as Hal, serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Tractor Supply Company since January 13, 2020. Mr. Lawton served as the President of Macy's, Inc. s...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Hal's total compensation ($USD11.12M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.27M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Hal's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TSCO's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TSCO's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/17 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/26
Annual Earnings	2021/12/25