Is Weakness In Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) Stock A Sign That The Market Could be Wrong Given Its Strong Financial Prospects?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 02, 2021
NasdaqGS:TSCO

It is hard to get excited after looking at Tractor Supply's (NASDAQ:TSCO) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past week. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Tractor Supply's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Tractor Supply

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Tractor Supply is:

39% = US$749m ÷ US$1.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.39 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Tractor Supply's Earnings Growth And 39% ROE

First thing first, we like that Tractor Supply has an impressive ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 17% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Probably as a result of this, Tractor Supply was able to see a decent net income growth of 12% over the last five years.

As a next step, we compared Tractor Supply's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 6.2%.

past-earnings-growth
NasdaqGS:TSCO Past Earnings Growth February 2nd 2021

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Tractor Supply's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Tractor Supply Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Tractor Supply has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 28% (or a retention ratio of 72%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Besides, Tractor Supply has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 37% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Tractor Supply's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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