Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Simply Wall St
March 18, 2022
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It's been a good week for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 8.8% to US$11.45. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.3%to hit US$443m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vivid Seats

NasdaqGS:SEAT Earnings and Revenue Growth March 18th 2022

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vivid Seats' nine analysts is for revenues of US$539.7m in 2022, which would reflect a major 22% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Vivid Seats is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.18 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$550.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.33 in 2022. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$16.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Vivid Seats' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Vivid Seats analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vivid Seats' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 1,163% over the past year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 14% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vivid Seats is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vivid Seats. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Vivid Seats' revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$16.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Vivid Seats going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Vivid Seats , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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