NasdaqGS:SCVL

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States.


Snowflake Analysis

Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Shoe Carnival's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: SCVL has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.9%

SCVL

0.6%

US Specialty Retail

-0.09%

US Market


1 Year Return

-0.7%

SCVL

23.3%

US Specialty Retail

23.9%

US Market

Return vs Industry: SCVL underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned 23.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SCVL underperformed the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

SCVLIndustryMarket
7 Day3.9%0.6%-0.09%
30 Day4.0%1.1%3.1%
90 Day13.0%6.8%10.4%
1 Year0.4%-0.7%25.3%23.3%26.6%23.9%
3 Year57.4%52.3%46.3%38.8%50.9%41.2%
5 Year70.9%62.0%49.3%36.6%78.1%58.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Shoe Carnival's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Shoe Carnival undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

13.85x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: SCVL ($37.12) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($32.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SCVL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: SCVL is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.3x) compared to the Specialty Retail industry average (17.1x).

PE vs Market: SCVL is good value based on its PE Ratio (13.3x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: SCVL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: SCVL is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.8x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Shoe Carnival forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

7.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SCVL's forecast earnings growth (7.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: SCVL's earnings (7.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SCVL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SCVL's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SCVL's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SCVL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.6%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Shoe Carnival performed over the past 5 years?

8.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SCVL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SCVL's current net profit margins (3.9%) are higher than last year (3.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SCVL's earnings have grown by 8.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SCVL's earnings growth over the past year (24.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (8.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SCVL earnings growth over the past year (24.2%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 4.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: SCVL's Return on Equity (13.6%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Shoe Carnival's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SCVL's short term assets ($345.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($130.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: SCVL's short term assets ($345.0M) exceed its long term liabilities ($216.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SCVL is debt free.

Reducing Debt: SCVL had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: SCVL has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: SCVL has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: SCVL has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if SCVL's debt is covered by short term assets.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Shoe Carnival's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.88%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0.9%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.8%forecastin3Years0.8%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: SCVL's dividend (0.92%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).

High Dividend: SCVL's dividend (0.92%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.66%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, SCVL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SCVL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (11.8%), SCVL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be covered by earnings.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Shoe Carnival's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Cliff Sifford (65yo)

7.3yrs

Tenure

US$2,583,675

Compensation

Mr. Clifton E. Sifford serves as the Vice Chairman of Shoe Carnival Inc. since September 2019 and has been the its Chief Executive Officer since October 27, 2012. He had served as President of Shoe Carniva ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Cliff's total compensation ($USD2.58M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.70M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Cliff's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: SCVL's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

69yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: SCVL's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: SCVL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$59,87506 Jan 20
Kent Kleeberger
EntityIndividual
Role
Lead Director
Lead Director
Shares1,620
Max PriceUS$36.96
SellUS$235,92006 Sep 19
Charles Tomm
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares8,000
Max PriceUS$29.49
SellUS$31,26106 Sep 19
Kent Kleeberger
EntityIndividual
Role
Lead Director
Lead Director
Shares1,090
Max PriceUS$28.68
SellUS$43,80016 Apr 19
Jeffrey Gerstel
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares1,200
Max PriceUS$36.50

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • W. Jackson (57yo)

    Senior EVP

    • Tenure: 23.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.59m
  • Timothy Baker (62yo)

    Executive VP & Chief Retail Operations Officer

    • Tenure: 18.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.43m
  • Cliff Sifford (65yo)

    Vice Chairman & CEO

    • Tenure: 7.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.58m
  • Jeff Fink

    Senior Vice President of Real Estate

    • Tenure: 4.3yrs
  • Sean Georges

    Senior VP of Human Resources

    • Marc Chilton

      Senior Vice President of Store Operations Administration

      • Tenure: 0.8yrs
    • Carl Scibetta (60yo)

      Executive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer

      • Tenure: 3.8yrs
      • Compensation: US$1.40m
    • Terry Clements

      Chief Information Officer & Senior VP

      • David Groff

        Vice President of Administration & Business Development

        • Mark Worden (45yo)

          President & Chief Customer Officer

          • Tenure: 0.3yrs
          • Compensation: US$1.37m

        Board Members

        • Kent Kleeberger (67yo)

          Lead Director

          • Compensation: US$172.81k
        • Joe Wood (71yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 7.6yrs
          • Compensation: US$142.81k
        • J. Weaver (84yo)

          Chairman

          • Tenure: 31.8yrs
          • Compensation: US$300.00k
        • Cliff Sifford (65yo)

          Vice Chairman & CEO

          • Tenure: 7.3yrs
          • Compensation: US$2.58m
        • Jim Aschleman (74yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 7.8yrs
          • Compensation: US$152.81k
        • Jeff Gerstel (55yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 4.3yrs
          • Compensation: US$137.81k
        • Charles Tomm (72yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 2.3yrs
          • Compensation: US$137.81k
        • Andrea Guthrie (47yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 4.3yrs
          • Compensation: US$140.31k

        Company Information

        Shoe Carnival, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


        Key Information

        • Name: Shoe Carnival, Inc.
        • Ticker: SCVL
        • Exchange: NasdaqGS
        • Founded: 1978
        • Industry: Apparel Retail
        • Sector: Retail
        • Market Cap: US$549.847m
        • Shares outstanding: 14.19m
        • Website: https://www.shoecarnival.com

        Number of Employees


        Location

        • Shoe Carnival, Inc.
        • 7500 East Columbia Street
        • Evansville
        • Indiana
        • 47715
        • United States

        Listings

        TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
        SCVLNasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesCommon StockUSUSDMar 1993

        Biography

        Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers various dress, casual, and athletic footwear products for men, women, and children; and accessories, such as socks, belts, shoe care items, handbags, sport bags, backpacks, scarves, and wallets. As of February 2, 2019, it operated 397 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Evansville, Indiana. 


        Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

        All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
        DataLast Updated (UTC time)
        Company Analysis2020/01/23 23:54
        End of Day Share Price2020/01/23 00:00
        Earnings2019/11/02
        Annual Earnings2019/02/02


        Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.