Shoe Carnival (NasdaqGS:SCVL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SCVL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SCVL ($21.86) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($90.28)

SCVL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	5/6

SCVL Stock Overview

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 75.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 85.3% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 1.65%

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Shoe Carnival Competitors

Zumiez

NasdaqGS:ZUMZ

US$502.8m

Genesco

NYSE:GCO

US$707.4m

Children's Place

NasdaqGS:PLCE

US$534.5m

Chico's FAS

NYSE:CHS

US$657.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Shoe Carnival
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$21.86
52 Week High	US$46.21
52 Week Low	US$20.62
Beta	1.39
1 Month Change	-20.45%
3 Month Change	-24.23%
1 Year Change	-37.36%
3 Year Change	60.26%
5 Year Change	133.05%
Change since IPO	534.65%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 14

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL)?

Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a...

Jun 02

Shoe Carnival: Downward Trend Should Be Temporary

Too many good things happening under the hood in Shoe Carnival. Higher costs have been adversely affecting margins, but sustained investment continues. Shoe Carnival's declining float, rising equity, and solid cash flow remain encouraging long-term trends.

Shareholder Returns

	SCVL	US Specialty Retail	US Market
7D	-4.4%	0.06%	0.3%
1Y	-37.4%	-29.9%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: SCVL underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -32.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SCVL underperformed the US Market which returned -19.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SCVL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SCVL volatility
SCVL Average Weekly Movement	8.1%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: SCVL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SCVL's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1978	4,200	Mark Worden	https://www.shoecarnival.com

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner.

Shoe Carnival Fundamentals Summary

How do Shoe Carnival's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SCVL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$603.06m
Earnings (TTM)	US$138.54m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.32b

4.4x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is SCVL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SCVL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.32b
Cost of Revenue	US$808.87m
Gross Profit	US$510.59m
Other Expenses	US$372.06m
Earnings	US$138.54m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.02
Gross Margin	38.70%
Net Profit Margin	10.50%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did SCVL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.6%

Current Dividend Yield

6%

Payout Ratio

Does SCVL pay a reliable dividends?

See SCVL dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy SCVL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Shoe Carnival dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jul 08 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 25 2022
Days until Ex dividend	2 days
Days until Dividend pay date	19 days

Does SCVL pay a reliable dividends?

See SCVL dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SCVL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SCVL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SCVL. This is calculated by dividing SCVL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SCVL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$603.06m

SCVL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SCVL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SCVL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SCVL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.6x
ZUMZ Zumiez	5.4x	-4.0%	US$502.8m
GCO Genesco	6.4x	n/a	US$707.4m
PLCE Children's Place	3.3x	-9.9%	US$534.5m
CHS Chico's FAS	7.3x	n/a	US$657.0m
SCVL Shoe Carnival	4.4x	n/a	US$603.1m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SCVL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.4x) compared to the peer average (5.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SCVL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SCVL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.4x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (5.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SCVL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SCVL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SCVL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SCVL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SCVL ($21.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($90.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SCVL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SCVL's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Shoe Carnival forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

5.6%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if SCVL's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if SCVL's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if SCVL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SCVL's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SCVL's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SCVL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Shoe Carnival performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

42.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SCVL has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SCVL's current net profit margins (10.5%) are higher than last year (6.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SCVL's earnings have grown significantly by 42% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SCVL's earnings growth over the past year (85.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (42% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SCVL earnings growth over the past year (85.3%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 40.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SCVL's Return on Equity (30.4%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Shoe Carnival's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SCVL's short term assets ($471.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($199.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: SCVL's short term assets ($471.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($206.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SCVL is debt free.

Reducing Debt: SCVL has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 0.2%.

Debt Coverage: SCVL has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: SCVL has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Shoe Carnival current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.65%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SCVL's dividend (1.65%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: SCVL's dividend (1.65%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SCVL's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SCVL's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (6.1%), SCVL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (28.5%), SCVL's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mark Worden (48 yo)

2.83yrs

Tenure

US$2,181,767

Compensation

Mr. Mark J. Worden serves as Chief Executive Officer at Shoe Carnival, Inc. since October 1, 2021 and has been its Director since January 1, 2021. He serves as the President at Shoe Carnival Inc. since Sep...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mark's total compensation ($USD2.18M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.06M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mark's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SCVL's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: SCVL's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: SCVL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/05 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2022/01/29