As you might know, Ozon Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:OZON) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 13% short of analyst estimates at US$88b. Statutory losses were US$135 per share, 43% bigger than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Ozon Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$2.00b revenue in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 98% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 99% to US$1.24. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$152.7b and US$94.82 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.
The consensus price target rose 5.3% to ₽4,579, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in sales. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ozon Holdings at ₽73.81 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₽45.88. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 98% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 61% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that Ozon Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ozon Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Ozon Holdings (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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