Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI): Evaluating Value After Recent Share Price Moves

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) stock has experienced some ups and downs over the past month, catching the attention of deal-focused retail investors. Shares have risen about 2% in the past month, even as the broader market has shifted.

See our latest analysis for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.

Ollie's has shown impressive resilience, with a 13.7% share price return since the start of the year, and the latest 1-year total shareholder return coming in at 23.3%. Short-term price action remains a bit choppy, but long-term momentum continues to build for investors with a steady hand.

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But with Ollie's trading just under 20% below analyst price targets and strong annual growth, is there still value left for new investors, or has the market already accounted for its continued momentum?

Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

The most popular narrative suggests that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings could have meaningful upside from today’s closing price, reflecting analyst optimism about earnings growth, profit margins, and store expansion. Here is a pivotal catalyst that underpins the narrative’s conviction.

The company is benefiting from a growing value-conscious consumer base, amplified by economic uncertainty and inflation, which is driving more customers toward discount retailers like Ollie's. This is boosting both store traffic and revenue growth, as seen by accelerated customer acquisition and rising loyalty program membership.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the hidden math behind this bullish fair value? The narrative relies on persistent revenue acceleration, widening margins, and an ambitious profit forecast that positions Ollie’s in premium territory. Which assumptions contribute to that price target outpacing the consensus? Discover the financial dynamics driving the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $146.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Ollie's rapid expansion and reliance on closeout inventory could threaten future profitability if retail trends or supply chains shift unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Bring Different Risks

While analysts see upside based on earnings growth, Ollie's trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4x, which is notably higher than the global multiline retail industry average of 20x, its peer average of 17.8x, and even its own fair ratio of 19.2x. This gap could signal valuation risk if the company’s momentum slows, raising the question of how sustainable the premium pricing really is.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Narrative

Keep in mind, the story is yours to shape. If you’d rather draw your own conclusions or review the numbers firsthand, you can build a personalized outlook for Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings in just minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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