Hibbett, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIBB), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NASDAQGS, rising to highs of US$99.69 and falling to the lows of US$45.77. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Hibbett's current trading price of US$45.77 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Hibbett’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
Is Hibbett still cheap?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Hibbett’s ratio of 3.47x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.25x, which means if you buy Hibbett today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Hibbett should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Hibbett’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Hibbett generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Hibbett, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -17%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? HIBB seems priced close to industry peers right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on HIBB, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on HIBB for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on HIBB should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, Hibbett has 4 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Hibbett, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
What are the risks and opportunities for Hibbett?
Trading at 79.6% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 13.11% per year
High level of non-cash earnings
Profit margins (6.6%) are lower than last year (10.7%)
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.