NasdaqGS:EYE

Stock Analysis Report

National Vision Holdings

Executive Summary

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer primarily in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 74.5% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 23.22% per year

Earnings grew by 35.9% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Proven track record with moderate growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has National Vision Holdings's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EYE's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-16.4%

EYE

-7.4%

US Specialty Retail

-2.0%

US Market


1 Year Return

-45.2%

EYE

-32.1%

US Specialty Retail

-15.1%

US Market

Return vs Industry: EYE underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -32.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EYE underperformed the US Market which returned -15.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EYEIndustryMarket
7 Day-16.4%-7.4%-2.0%
30 Day-53.0%-31.2%-19.7%
90 Day-48.8%-36.3%-23.2%
1 Year-45.2%-45.2%-31.0%-32.1%-13.4%-15.1%
3 Yearn/a-6.5%-11.1%10.9%3.7%
5 Yearn/a-7.0%-14.3%28.4%14.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Vision Holdings's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is National Vision Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EYE ($16.67) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EYE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (40x) compared to the Specialty Retail industry average (6.5x).

PE vs Market: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (40x) compared to the US market (12.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: EYE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EYE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.7x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (0.7x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is National Vision Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

23.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EYE's forecast earnings growth (23.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: EYE's earnings (23.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EYE's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EYE's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EYE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has National Vision Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

32.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EYE has a large one-off loss of $18.7M impacting its December 28 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: EYE's current net profit margins (1.9%) are higher than last year (1.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EYE's earnings have grown significantly by 32.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: EYE's earnings growth over the past year (35.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (32.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: EYE earnings growth over the past year (35.9%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 6.9%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: EYE's Return on Equity (4.2%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is National Vision Holdings's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($234.6M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($273.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($234.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($983.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EYE's debt to equity ratio (70.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: EYE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (30.3%).

Interest Coverage: EYE's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.5x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: EYE has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: EYE's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.4x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is National Vision Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EYE's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

L. Fahs (58yo)

17.25s

Tenure

US$1,602,670

Compensation

Mr. L. Reade Fahs has been Chief Executive Officer of National Vision Holdings, Inc. since January 2003 and served its Chief Operating Officer until 2019. Mr. Fahs joined National Vision Inc. in April 2002 ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: L.'s total compensation ($USD1.60M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.73M).

Compensation vs Earnings: L.'s compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
L. Fahs
CEO & Director17.25yrsUS$1.60m0.63% $8.4m
Patrick Moore
Senior VP & CFO5.17yrsUS$590.75k0.0056% $75.0k
John Vaught
Senior VP & Chief Information Officer2.83yrsUS$382.47kno data
Raymond McAllister
Special Advisor1.25yrsUS$839.62k0.21% $2.9m
Melissa Rasmussen
Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer0.75yrno datano data
Ravi Acharya
Chief Technology Officer0.083yrno datano data
David Mann
Vice President of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Jared Brandman
Senior VP1.17yrsno data0.0059% $78.8k
Joan Blackwood
Chief Marketing Officer0.33yrno datano data
Bill Clark
Senior VP & Chief People Officer0.83yrno datano data

1.2yrs

Average Tenure

54.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: EYE's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
L. Fahs
CEO & Director17.25yrsUS$1.60m0.63% $8.4m
David Peeler
Independent Director6.08yrsno data0.21% $2.9m
David Tehle
Independent Director2.75yrsUS$195.00k0.014% $192.0k
Nathaniel Taylor
Chairman2.5yrsno datano data
Virginia Hepner
Independent Director2.25yrsUS$175.00k0.0073% $98.3k
Thomas Taylor
Independent Director1.58yrsUS$125.00kno data
Heather Cianfrocco
Director0.75yrno data0.0039% $51.9k

2.5yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: EYE's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.6%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Vision Holdings, Inc.
  • Ticker: EYE
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1990
  • Industry: Specialty Stores
  • Sector: Retail
  • Market Cap: US$1.337b
  • Shares outstanding: 80.21m
  • Website: https://www.nationalvision.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Vision Holdings, Inc.
  • Building 2200
  • 2435 Commerce Avenue
  • Duluth
  • Georgia
  • 30096
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
EYENasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesNew Common StockUSUSDOct 2017
7NVDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesNew Common StockDEEUROct 2017

Biography

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer primarily in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products, as well as eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, and Vista Optical Military, as well as Vision Center brand stores; and provides health maintenance organization, vision care benefit plan, and optometric services. As of November 7, 2019, the company operated through 1,100 retail stores in 44 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, as well as various e-commerce Websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/04 03:14
End of Day Share Price2020/04/03 00:00
Earnings2019/12/28
Annual Earnings2019/12/28


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.