NasdaqGS:EYE

Stock Analysis Report

National Vision Holdings

Executive Summary

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer primarily in the United States.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 51.61% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (0.6%) are lower than last year (4.5%)

+ 1 more risk


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential with poor track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has National Vision Holdings's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EYE's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

8.3%

EYE

0.6%

US Specialty Retail

-0.09%

US Market


1 Year Return

8.3%

EYE

23.3%

US Specialty Retail

23.9%

US Market

Return vs Industry: EYE underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned 23.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EYE underperformed the US Market which returned 24.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EYEIndustryMarket
7 Day8.3%0.6%-0.09%
30 Day7.4%1.1%3.1%
90 Day49.1%6.8%10.4%
1 Year8.3%8.3%25.3%23.3%26.6%23.9%
3 Yearn/a46.3%38.8%50.9%41.2%
5 Yearn/a49.3%36.6%78.1%58.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Vision Holdings's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is National Vision Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

266.35x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EYE ($32.99) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($24.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EYE is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (247x) compared to the Specialty Retail industry average (17.1x).

PE vs Market: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (247x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: EYE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (4.8x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EYE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.4x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is National Vision Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

51.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EYE's forecast earnings growth (51.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: EYE's earnings (51.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EYE's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EYE's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EYE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has National Vision Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

35.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EYE has a large one-off loss of $32.7M impacting its September 28 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: EYE's current net profit margins (0.6%) are lower than last year (4.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EYE's earnings have grown significantly by 35.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: EYE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: EYE had negative earnings growth (-84.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Specialty Retail industry average (4.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EYE's Return on Equity (1.4%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is National Vision Holdings's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($278.6M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($303.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($278.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.0B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EYE's debt to equity ratio (74.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: EYE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (28.2%).

Interest Coverage: EYE's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: EYE has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: EYE's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.5x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is National Vision Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.8%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EYE's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of National Vision Holdings's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

L. Fahs (58yo)

17yrs

Tenure

US$1,602,670

Compensation

Mr. L. Reade Fahs has been Chief Executive Officer of National Vision Holdings, Inc. since January 2003 and served its Chief Operating Officer until 2019. Mr. Fahs joined National Vision Inc. in April 2002 ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: L.'s total compensation ($USD1.60M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.99M).

Compensation vs Earnings: L.'s compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

1.0yrs

Average Tenure

59.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: EYE's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

2.3yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: EYE's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: EYE insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyUS$99,89113 Nov 19
Thomas Taylor
EntityIndividual
Shares3,610
Max PriceUS$28.01
SellUS$279,255,19214 Aug 19
KKR & Co. Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares9,149,908
Max PriceUS$30.52

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.5%.


Management Team

  • Bob Stein (63yo)

    Senior VP and Chief Philanthropic & Managed Care Development Officer

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$460.00k
  • L. Fahs (58yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 17yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.60m
  • Joan Blackwood

    Chief Marketing Officer

    • Tenure: 0.08yrs
  • Jeff McAllister (61yo)

    Special Advisor

    • Tenure: 1yrs
    • Compensation: US$839.62k
  • Patrick Moore (55yo)

    Senior VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 4.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$590.75k
  • John Vaught (66yo)

    Senior VP & Chief Information Officer

    • Tenure: 2.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$382.47k
  • David Mann

    Vice President of Investor Relations

    • Jared Brandman (42yo)

      Senior VP

      • Tenure: 0.9yrs
    • Bill Clark

      Chief People Officer

      • Tenure: 0.6yrs
    • Melissa Rasmussen

      Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer

      • Tenure: 0.5yrs

    Board Members

    • Randy Peeler (54yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5.8yrs
    • David Tehle (62yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 2.5yrs
      • Compensation: US$195.00k
    • L. Fahs (58yo)

      CEO & Director

      • Tenure: 17yrs
      • Compensation: US$1.60m
    • Nathaniel Taylor (42yo)

      Chairman

      • Tenure: 2.3yrs
    • Virginia Hepner (61yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 2yrs
      • Compensation: US$175.00k
    • Tom Taylor (53yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 1.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$125.00k
    • Heather Cianfrocco

      Director

      • Tenure: 0.5yrs

    Company Information

    National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: National Vision Holdings, Inc.
    • Ticker: EYE
    • Exchange: NasdaqGS
    • Founded: 1990
    • Industry: Specialty Stores
    • Sector: Retail
    • Market Cap: US$2.814b
    • Shares outstanding: 79.12m
    • Website: https://www.nationalvision.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • National Vision Holdings, Inc.
    • Building 2200
    • 2435 Commerce Avenue
    • Duluth
    • Georgia
    • 30096
    • United States

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    EYENasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesNew Common StockUSUSDOct 2017
    7NVDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesNew Common StockDEEUROct 2017

    Biography

    National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer primarily in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products, as well as eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, and Vista Optical Military, as well as Vision Center brand stores; and provides health maintenance organization, vision care benefit plan, and optometric services. As of November 7, 2019, the company operated through 1,100 retail stores in 44 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, as well as various e-commerce Websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/24 01:20
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/23 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/28
    Annual Earnings2018/12/29


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.