National Vision Holdings (NasdaqGS:EYE) - Share price, News & Analysis

EYE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

EYE Stock Overview

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 13.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 8.77% per year

Earnings have grown 36.2% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

EYE passed our risk checks.

National Vision Holdings Competitors

Warby Parker

NYSE:WRBY

US$1.8b

Walmart

NYSE:WMT

US$328.1b

Costco Wholesale

NasdaqGS:COST

US$184.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for National Vision Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$26.90
52 Week High	US$65.92
52 Week Low	US$22.59
Beta	1.78
1 Month Change	-33.99%
3 Month Change	-29.64%
1 Year Change	-44.20%
3 Year Change	-6.79%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-3.34%

Shareholder Returns

	EYE	US Specialty Retail	US Market
7D	3.1%	-8.9%	-2.7%
1Y	-44.2%	-28.3%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: EYE underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -28.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EYE underperformed the US Market which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is EYE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
EYE volatility
EYE Average Weekly Movement	10.1%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	8.7%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: EYE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: EYE's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1990	13,735	L. Fahs	https://www.nationalvision.com

National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services.

National Vision Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do National Vision Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
EYE fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.19b
Earnings (TTM)	US$114.96m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.07b

19.1x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/S Ratio

Is EYE overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
EYE income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.07b
Cost of Revenue	US$916.13m
Gross Profit	US$1.16b
Other Expenses	US$1.04b
Earnings	US$114.96m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 02, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.41
Gross Margin	55.81%
Net Profit Margin	5.55%
Debt/Equity Ratio	57.2%

How did EYE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is National Vision Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

13.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EYE ($26.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($31.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EYE is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (19.1x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.3x).

PE vs Market: EYE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (19.1x) compared to the US market (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: EYE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.2x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EYE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.3x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.7x).

Future Growth

How is National Vision Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

8.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EYE's forecast earnings growth (8.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: EYE's earnings (8.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: EYE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: EYE's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EYE's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EYE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.1%).

Past Performance

How has National Vision Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

36.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EYE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: EYE's current net profit margins (5.5%) are higher than last year (3.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EYE's earnings have grown significantly by 36.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: EYE's earnings growth over the past year (65.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (36.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: EYE earnings growth over the past year (65.2%) underperformed the Specialty Retail industry 75.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: EYE's Return on Equity (12.1%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is National Vision Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($532.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($345.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: EYE's short term assets ($532.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EYE's net debt to equity ratio (24%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: EYE's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 192.8% to 57.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: EYE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38.3%).

Interest Coverage: EYE's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (10.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is National Vision Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EYE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EYE's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as EYE has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

L. Fahs (60 yo)

19.33yrs

Tenure

US$5,728,490

Compensation

Mr. L. Reade Fahs has been Chief Executive Officer of National Vision Holdings, Inc. since January 2003 and serves as its President since November 2021 and served its Chief Operating Officer until 2019. Mr...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: L.'s total compensation ($USD5.73M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.44M).

Compensation vs Earnings: L.'s compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: EYE's management team is considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: EYE's board of directors are considered experienced (3.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: EYE insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/22 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/02
Annual Earnings	2022/01/01