What National Vision Holdings (EYE)'s Raised Revenue Outlook and Store Expansion Plans Mean For Shareholders

• In early November 2025, National Vision Holdings reported that it remained on track to open 32 new stores during fiscal 2025, with a net addition of 9 stores after planned closures, and posted strong third-quarter earnings with revenue rising to US$487.33 million and net income of US$3.37 million.
• The company also raised its full-year net revenue guidance to a range of US$1.97 billion to US$1.99 billion, reflecting increased confidence in its ongoing business performance.
• We'll examine how the raised full-year guidance strengthens National Vision Holdings' investment narrative and signals management's outlook for continued growth.

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National Vision Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own National Vision Holdings, an investor must believe in the company’s ability to leverage expanding store openings, evolving product assortments, and managed care growth to offset intensifying online competition and changing consumer buying habits. The recent earnings beat and raised revenue forecast reinforce management’s positive stance, but do not substantially alter the immediate challenge: maintaining transaction growth and profitability in the face of mounting pressure from value-focused online eyewear brands and a more promotional retail environment.

Among recent developments, the updated full-year net revenue guidance, lifted to between US$1.97 billion and US$1.99 billion, stands out most in context of short-term catalysts, as it signals the management’s confidence in increased exam volumes, upmarket product mix, and store expansion initiatives amid a competitive specialty retail sector. Sustained execution on these fronts remains integral to supporting both comp sales growth and operating leverage, especially as the company seeks to balance margin expansion with customer acquisition in a value-driven market.

Yet, despite these positive signals, it remains important not to overlook the potential headwinds if managed care adoption slows, or if...

Read the full narrative on National Vision Holdings (it's free!)

National Vision Holdings' narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $89.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.4% yearly revenue growth and a $104.4 million increase in earnings from -$15.0 million today.

Uncover how National Vision Holdings' forecasts yield a $29.80 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community submitted three fair value estimates for National Vision Holdings, ranging from US$14.02 to US$22.01 per share. While expectations around managed care growth are high, the impact of online competitors on sales and margins is a key consideration highlighted across market viewpoints.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on National Vision Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as $22.01!

Build Your Own National Vision Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your National Vision Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free National Vision Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate National Vision Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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