A Look at National Vision (EYE)'s Valuation After New Growth Blueprint and 2025 Outlook Reaffirmation

National Vision Holdings (EYE) laid out an ambitious plan for the next five years, highlighting a disciplined investment approach, a phased transformation, and significant store expansion. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 earnings outlook. Investors now have a clearer view of management's roadmap through 2030.

See our latest analysis for National Vision Holdings.

National Vision Holdings’ bold transformation plans come amid strong momentum for the stock, with a 167.9% share price return year to date, powered by growing investor confidence in the company’s expansion and financial discipline. However, the three and five year total shareholder returns remain negative, reminding long-term holders that sustained execution is critical for a full turnaround.

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Given how far National Vision Holdings shares have surged this year, do investors still have room to profit from further growth, or has the market already priced in the company’s long-term expansion strategy?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.3% Undervalued

National Vision Holdings recently closed at $28.85, but the most popular narrative puts fair value at $32.90. This substantial spread suggests that optimistic assumptions are influencing investor sentiment.

Expansion of managed care customer base and broader vision insurance adoption is accelerating. This is evidenced by the double-digit managed care comp growth and ongoing initiatives to capture more insured customers. These factors directly support higher and more resilient patient volumes, expanding top-line revenue and increasing average ticket per transaction.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the inside scoop on what’s powering that higher fair value? This narrative focuses largely on significant increases in revenue, earnings, and profit margins. However, the price-to-earnings ratio implied by these forecasts is notably high. Wondering what makes analysts confident enough to predict profitability comparable to tech-sector multiples? Dig in to see the bold assumptions that underpin this narrative’s numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $32.90 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, growing online competition and persistent optometrist shortages could limit National Vision’s ability to maintain its current growth momentum and increase long-term profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this National Vision Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own National Vision Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding National Vision Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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