Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Shares Could Be 31% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Published
June 02, 2022
NasdaqGS:DLTR
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Dollar Tree

Is Dollar Tree fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$745.4m US$1.28b US$1.43b US$1.59b US$1.73b US$2.00b US$2.16b US$2.30b US$2.42b US$2.52b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x8 Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.29% Est @ 6.38% Est @ 5.04% Est @ 4.11%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 5.7% US$705 US$1.1k US$1.2k US$1.3k US$1.3k US$1.4k US$1.5k US$1.5k US$1.5k US$1.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.5b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (5.7%– 1.9%) = US$69b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$69b÷ ( 1 + 5.7%)10= US$40b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$53b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$161, the company appears quite undervalued at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NasdaqGS:DLTR Discounted Cash Flow June 2nd 2022

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dollar Tree as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.882. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Dollar Tree, there are three additional factors you should consider:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Dollar Tree .
  2. Future Earnings: How does DLTR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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