Stock Analysis

Are UMH Properties, Inc.'s (NYSE:UMH) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market?

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NYSE:UMH
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With its stock down 19% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard UMH Properties (NYSE:UMH). It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Particularly, we will be paying attention to UMH Properties' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for UMH Properties

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for UMH Properties is:

5.3% = US$40m ÷ US$770m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

UMH Properties' Earnings Growth And 5.3% ROE

When you first look at it, UMH Properties' ROE doesn't look that attractive. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.5%. Particularly, the exceptional 23% net income growth seen by UMH Properties over the past five years is pretty remarkable. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared UMH Properties' net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 11%.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:UMH Past Earnings Growth July 22nd 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about UMH Properties''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is UMH Properties Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

UMH Properties has very a high three-year median payout ratio of 188% suggesting that the company's shareholders are getting paid from more than just the company's earnings. In spite of this, the company was able to grow its earnings significantly, as we saw above. Although, it could be worth keeping an eye on the high payout ratio as that's a huge risk. To know the 5 risks we have identified for UMH Properties visit our risks dashboard for free.

Moreover, UMH Properties is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 71% over the next three years.

Conclusion

Overall, we have mixed feelings about UMH Properties. While the company has posted impressive earnings growth, its poor ROE and low earnings retention makes us doubtful if that growth could continue, if by any chance the business is faced with any sort of risk. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

What are the risks and opportunities for UMH Properties?

UMH Properties, Inc., which was organized in 1968, is a public equity REIT that owns and operates 124 manufactured home communities containing approximately 23,400 developed homesites.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 15.6% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 129.71% per year

Risks

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

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