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SAFE

Safehold NYSE:SAFE Stock Report

Last Price

US$26.46

Market Cap

US$1.6b

7D

-12.7%

1Y

-63.6%

Updated

30 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
SAFE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends3/6

SAFE Stock Overview

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings.

Safehold Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Safehold
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$26.46
52 Week HighUS$80.66
52 Week LowUS$24.88
Beta0.35
1 Month Change-30.42%
3 Month Change-29.16%
1 Year Change-63.59%
3 Year Change-21.23%
5 Year Change41.88%
Change since IPO39.26%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 19

Safehold: Earnings Contraction In 2023 Should Be The Final Nail

Summary Safehold has struggled for traction since the bubble has burst. The last fig leaf is the "growth story". Earnings contraction is dead ahead and we are lowering our price target to $16-$17 per share.

Sep 10
Here's Why We Think Safehold (NYSE:SAFE) Is Well Worth Watching

Here's Why We Think Safehold (NYSE:SAFE) Is Well Worth Watching

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...

Shareholder Returns

SAFEUS REITsUS Market
7D-12.7%-4.1%-2.5%
1Y-63.6%-20.4%-23.2%

Return vs Industry: SAFE underperformed the US REITs industry which returned -20.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SAFE underperformed the US Market which returned -21.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SAFE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SAFE volatility
SAFE Average Weekly Movement6.9%
REITs Industry Average Movement4.1%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: SAFE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SAFE's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2016n/aJay Sugarmanhttps://www.safeholdinc.com

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of high quality multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use properties in major markets throughout the United States generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and is managed by its largest shareholder, iStar Inc., seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders.

Safehold Fundamentals Summary

How do Safehold's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SAFE fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.65b
Earnings (TTM)US$89.03m
Revenue (TTM)US$233.58m

18.5x

P/E Ratio

7.0x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SAFE income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$233.58m
Cost of RevenueUS$2.75m
Gross ProfitUS$230.83m
Other ExpensesUS$141.80m
EarningsUS$89.03m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)1.43
Gross Margin98.82%
Net Profit Margin38.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio160.7%

How did SAFE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

54%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SAFE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SAFE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SAFE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue21x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA24.7x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SAFE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SAFE PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for SAFE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
FCPT Four Corners Property Trust
20.7x6.9%US$2.0b
UNIT Uniti Group
8.9x6.7%US$1.6b
PCH PotlatchDeltic
8.5x-57.7%US$3.3b
OUT Outfront Media
19.1x23.7%US$2.5b
SAFE Safehold
18.5x21.5%US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SAFE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SAFE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SAFE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the US REITs industry average (25.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SAFE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SAFE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.5x
Fair PE Ratio37.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SAFE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SAFE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SAFE ($26.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($53.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SAFE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Safehold forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


21.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SAFE's forecast earnings growth (21.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: SAFE's earnings (21.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SAFE's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SAFE's revenue (21.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SAFE's revenue (21.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SAFE's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (4.9%).


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Safehold performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


54.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SAFE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SAFE's current net profit margins (38.1%) are higher than last year (36.1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SAFE's earnings have grown significantly by 54% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SAFE's earnings growth over the past year (45.8%) is below its 5-year average (54% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SAFE earnings growth over the past year (45.8%) underperformed the REITs industry 45.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: SAFE's Return on Equity (4.4%) is considered low.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Safehold's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SAFE's short term assets ($4.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($142.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: SAFE's short term assets ($4.4B) exceed its long term liabilities ($3.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SAFE's net debt to equity ratio (159.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: SAFE's debt to equity ratio has increased from 63.4% to 160.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SAFE's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (2.2%).

Interest Coverage: SAFE's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Safehold current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


2.68%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Safehold Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Safehold dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Safehold)2.7%
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.7%
Market Top 25% (US)4.7%
Industry Average (REITs)4.1%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Safehold)2.7%

Notable Dividend: SAFE's dividend (2.68%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.66%).

High Dividend: SAFE's dividend (2.68%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.7%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, SAFE has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SAFE's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (53.6%), SAFE's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (60.7%), SAFE's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jay Sugarman (59 yo)

5.92yrs

Tenure

Mr. Jay S. Sugarman has been the Executive Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of iStar Inc. since founded in 1997. Mr. Sugarman serves as Chief Executive Officer of iStar Marlin LLC. He has...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SAFE's management team is considered experienced (3.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: SAFE's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:SAFE Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
07 Mar 22BuyUS$191,160,000iStar Inc.Company3,240,000US$59.00
19 Jan 22BuyUS$499,854iStar Inc.Company7,340US$68.10
12 Nov 21BuyUS$1,780,111iStar Inc.Company24,108US$73.94
26 Oct 21BuyUS$999,879iStar Inc.Company13,589US$73.58
22 Oct 21BuyUS$999,907iStar Inc.Company13,174US$75.90

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of SAFE?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders320,2700.5%
Institutions63,609,78899.5%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 10.6%.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 97.47% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
64.77%
iStar Inc.
40,279,077$1.1b0.33%no data
4.89%
BlackRock, Inc.
3,040,784$80.5m5.44%no data
4.52%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
2,809,275$74.3m0.57%no data
3.42%
GIC Real Estate, Inc.
2,125,000$56.2m0%100%
3.41%
GIC Private Limited
2,123,435$56.2m0%0.1%
2.89%
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
1,797,511$47.6m11.1%0.01%
2.5%
NewEdge Wealth LLC
1,553,469$41.1m-2.25%2.03%
2.12%
AllianceBernstein L.P.
1,318,938$34.9m1.33%0.01%
1.65%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
1,028,296$27.2m4.66%no data
1.55%
Long Pond Capital, LP
964,261$25.5m0%1.44%
0.88%
Millennium Management LLC
548,194$14.5m7.3%0.02%
0.61%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
376,658$10.0m2.43%no data
0.58%
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments
361,540$9.6m4.04%no data
0.58%
UBS Asset Management
360,790$9.5m-4.86%no data
0.39%
Northern Trust Global Investments
241,263$6.4m0.94%no data
0.31%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
193,487$5.1m5.92%no data
0.31%
Addison Capital Co
190,820$5.0m-3.43%3.11%
0.3%
New Jersey Division of Investment
187,500$5.0m0%0.02%
0.3%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
185,810$4.9m-0.79%no data
0.27%
Norges Bank Investment Management
169,631$4.5m0%no data
0.27%
Allstate Investments, LLC
164,997$4.4m469.72%0.14%
0.25%
Mesirow Financial Investment Management, Inc.
156,630$4.1m0%0.53%
0.25%
Legal & General Investment Management Limited
154,150$4.1m10.16%no data
0.24%
B&I Capital AG
146,316$3.9m-10.79%0.59%
0.22%
GEM Realty Advisors, LLC
135,961$3.6m17.21%1.23%

Company Information

Safehold Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Safehold Inc.
  • Ticker: SAFE
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2016
  • Industry: Specialized REITs
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Implied Market Cap: US$1.645b
  • Shares outstanding: 62.19m
  • Website: https://www.safeholdinc.com

Location

  • Safehold Inc.
  • 1114 Avenue of the Americas
  • 39th Floor
  • New York
  • New York
  • 10036
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
SAFENYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJun 2017
2T3DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJun 2017

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.