Rayonier Inc.'s (NYSE:RYN) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 19, 2022
NYSE:RYN
Source: Shutterstock

With its stock down 4.8% over the past week, it is easy to disregard Rayonier (NYSE:RYN). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. In this article, we decided to focus on Rayonier's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Rayonier

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Rayonier is:

10% = US$201m ÷ US$1.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.10 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Rayonier's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

At first glance, Rayonier seems to have a decent ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 6.6% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. As you might expect, the 27% net income decline reported by Rayonier is a bit of a surprise. Therefore, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Rayonier's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.0% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:RYN Past Earnings Growth January 19th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is RYN worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether RYN is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Rayonier Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Rayonier seems to be paying out most of its income as dividends judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 52% (meaning, the company retains only 48% of profits). However, this is typical for REITs as they are often required by law to distribute most of their earnings. So this probably explains the company's shrinking earnings.

Additionally, Rayonier has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 206% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 4.5% over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Rayonier certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. Additionally, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that analysts expect the company's earnings to continue to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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