Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR): Exploring Valuation Following Analyst Coverage, Elliott Stake, and Equity Offering Plans

Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) is drawing heightened attention this week as Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a favorable outlook. In addition, Elliott Management has surfaced as a major new shareholder, and Rexford announced plans for potential equity offerings.

See our latest analysis for Rexford Industrial Realty.

Following the buzz from Cantor Fitzgerald's coverage and Elliott Management’s stake, Rexford’s share price has shown modest movement. This reflects a market looking for clearer growth signals. Over the past year, the total shareholder return sits just below flat, suggesting momentum is steady but not accelerating for now.

If Rexford’s recent activity has you thinking about future opportunities, it might be the right time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

So after months of lackluster returns and renewed interest from analysts and activists, is Rexford trading below its true value or is the market already reflecting all the potential upside? Could this be a buying opportunity, or is everything priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

Rexford’s fair value estimate from the most widely followed narrative is $40.88, which is close to the last close of $41.67. Sentiment in the narrative matches the market, with analysts divided over just how much upside remains in current fundamentals.

"Rexford's focus on repositioning and redevelopment of infill Southern California assets is unlocking significant embedded growth, with $70 million of incremental NOI in process or lease-up, and ongoing pipeline activity supporting future same-property earnings and NOI expansion. Persistent land constraints and growing resistance to new industrial development in major Southern California urban centers will continue to drive long-term scarcity value for Rexford's existing, well-located properties. This supports rent growth and asset appreciation, which should positively impact revenue and NAV over time."

Read the complete narrative.

What is behind this tightly matched valuation? The narrative hinges on Southern California redevelopment, strong cash flows, and ambitious assumptions about future profit multiples. Find out what is driving analyst conviction and where their bullishness could surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $40.88 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if market rents continue to face sustained downward pressure or if there are delays in redevelopment lease-ups, current analyst optimism could quickly diminish and sentiment on Rexford’s outlook could shift.

Find out about the key risks to this Rexford Industrial Realty narrative.

Another View: What About Cash Flows?

While analyst consensus sees Rexford’s share price as fair value using traditional multiples, our SWS DCF model has a very different take. It values Rexford at $53.30 per share, meaning the current price trades at a steep 21.8% discount. Could this be a signal the market is missing?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Rexford Industrial Realty for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Rexford Industrial Realty Narrative

If you see things differently or want to put together your own analysis, it's easy to dig into the numbers and shape your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Rexford Industrial Realty research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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